I'm going to sort of live-blog the Home Run Derby, as I'm watching it alone and it's really good this year and I have nobody to share my thoughts with. Onward!
The Derby started with the incredibly lame and annoying boilerplate sports nostalgia highlights that I've come to expect before every single nationally broadcast baseball game. Remember when this sort of thing was mostly limited to athletes' stories during the Olympics? Now, mid-May games between the Cubs and Cardinals are preceded by 15 minutes of Joe Buck blathering on about Stan Musial and Billy Williams for no particular reason. I may be remembering this incorrectly, but I think this practice really picked up around the turn of the century and became a permanent cancer on baseball broadcasts when A) Fox started doing a lot of baseball, and B) 9/11 happened and baseball stirringly returned in Yankee Stadium. The latter, incidentally, is also the reason why we now have to endure God Bless America before every Sunday game.
The other reason I approach the Derby with a bottle of scotch and an assumed crash position is that Chris Berman calls it. I understand that when he was fresh on the scene, ol' YWML and his rhyming schtick was considered pretty cutting-edge. And when I was a teenager, I thought calling my favorite slick-fielding first baseman "Mark 'Holy Mary Mother of' Grace" was hilarious. Now that I'm an adult, and I've achieved a solidly below-average level of maturity, I can't abide his noxious gimmicks. That said - despite the fact that Satan arranged for him to be partnered with John Kruk and Joe Morgan - Berman has been pretty tame tonight. I literally came into this show dreading the patented "BackbackbackbackbackbackGONE!", but fortunately we haven't been subjected to too many of those.
ESPN has been really, really off the ball (Off the ball. Get it? I probably stole that one from Berman.) for the past few years, but so far tonight has been a return to form. The other announcers, besides Berman, Kruk, and Morgan, include Erin Andrews (meh), Rick Reilly (cool), and Peter Gammons (awesome). Gammons, as always, knows more than everyone else and has better insight than the entire rest of the commentary crew combined. But Reilly...that guy is really making tonight special. He clearly adopted the role of the outraged classy sportswriter, the kind of guy who used to write vicious, sharp, angry pieces in Sports Illustrated on important topics. He pointed out, in a gravelly, unforgiving voice that clearly couldn't care that ESPN specializes in boring, anti-septic, patriotic, happy-go-lucky broadcasts these days, that despite precedent, all of this year's ten Derby contestants are white. Then he shut up completely, just letting that uncomfortable truth dangle in the dead air like a twirling Cirque Du Soleil trapeze artist. Listening to the other commentators try to rapidly change the subject, without dealing with Reilly's statements in any manner whatsoever, during what they probably thought of as the easiest broadcast of the year, was worth every single second I had to spend listening to Joe Morgan. There's something like a zero percent chance Reilly is invited back next year.
The other bit that ESPN is getting right is adding super-slow-mo cameras to get beautiful, crystal-clear, ultra-high speed images of each batter's swing. I have no idea how much those things cost, but I'd kill to be able to add those to every game broadcast.
As for the actual contest...well, no Cubs and no White Sox participated, so I felt free to pick whomever I wanted. I decided I'd go with Ryan Braun, because A) He's Jewish, and B) There is no B.
It was actually a very boring Home Run Derby, with a couple players disappointing and nobody hitting more than 8 dingers in the first round. Surely all the sportwriters assigned to cover the event were desperately trying to think of interesting things to say as the second round began, because nothing obvious would come to mind...well, maybe Josh Hamilton, a former first overall pick, who was out of baseball for 3 years with a serious drug addiction, got his life together, returned to the majors after 50 career minor league games in A-ball, was traded this offseason for a current Cy Young contender, is threating to win the Triple Crown in the AL, who hit more homers in the first round than the next three batters combined, including some of the longest in Derby history, off of his chosen batting practice pitcher, his 71-year old former little league coach, who spent his life helping kids and whose only previous trip to Yankee stadium was over 50 years ago when he happened to see Don Larsen's perfect game in the World Series.
Pity the sportswriters.
...and then Hamilton managed to lose in the final round to Justin Morneau, whose first name I believe is Canadian for good, bland, and kinda overrated. A truly disappointing end, but to give you an idea of just how awesome his first round performance was, after the event finished he was interviewed before Morneau. Yankee Stadium, which is filled with some the least classy fans in existence, and who actually gave a Bronx Cheer to some of the players who had bad days (by the way, there's a reason booing and sarcastic cheering is referred to as a "Bronx Cheer,") was chanting his name for ten minutes at one point. Hamilton reportedly doesn't go outside alone because he doesn't trust himself not to use, spends his free time talking to kids about his experiences, and is totally on my fantasy team. I really, truly wish him the best.
P.S. Sammy Sosa still holds the record for longest Derby homer (524 feet, IIRC), and boy do I believe it. I've been blessed enough to see a cool few things at baseball games in my time (a straight steal of home, Kerry Wood's first game back from Tommy John, and Mark Prior's first ever major league game amongst them), but by far the most astounding was a 532 foot Sosa homer off of the Pirates.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
The Difficult Life of Felix Pie
It has been noted elsewhere that Felix Pie, 23 year-old erstwhile center fielder of the future for the Cubs, has been losing starts to useful player and known quantity Reed Johnson. Unfortunately, it feels like that when Felix starts, the Cubs are playing against the best starting pitchers in the game. Could it possibly be that the Cubs would mess with a young player's development by only playing him in the games in which he is most likely to fail? I decided to find out.
Felix Pie has started against the following pitchers:
Ben Sheets
Jeff Suppan
Dave Bush
Chris Sampson
Matt Morris
Aaron Harang
Nelson Figueroa
Aaron Cook
Ben Sheets
Jeff Suppan
Adam Wainright
Johnny Cueto
First of all, that's all of 12 starts in 32 games. If you exclude the first four games of the season, all of which Pie began in the starting lineup, that makes 8 out of 28 games.
Furthermore, of his 12 starts, Pie has faced Brewers ace Ben Sheets twice, Reds ace Aaron Harang once, Rockies ace Aaron Cook once, and Cardinals ace Adam Wainright once. That's 5 starts out of his 12 against pitchers currently ranked fifth, sixth, tenth, and thirteenth in ERA in the National League.
Of his remaining seven starts, one came against Reds phenom Johnny Cueto, who sports a 5.17 ERA but also 49 strikeouts in 47 innings, a 5-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a 1.15 WHIP.
Of his remaining six starts, two came against Jeff Suppan, who is pretty much the very definition of a league-average innings-eater.
Of his remaining four starts, two came against Dave Bush and Chris Sampson, neither of whom is without promise but both of whom have been solidly bad pitchers so far this year.
The last two starts were against monumentally bad pitchers Matt Morris and Nelson Figueroa, although to be fair, the latter hurler isn't at all as bad as the former.
To sum up:
Lou Piniella desperately needs to stop forcing Pie to cool his heels on the bench for days on end, only to play against the best of the National League. That's not fair, and more importantly, it's no way to develop a player.
Felix Pie has started against the following pitchers:
Ben Sheets
Jeff Suppan
Dave Bush
Chris Sampson
Matt Morris
Aaron Harang
Nelson Figueroa
Aaron Cook
Ben Sheets
Jeff Suppan
Adam Wainright
Johnny Cueto
First of all, that's all of 12 starts in 32 games. If you exclude the first four games of the season, all of which Pie began in the starting lineup, that makes 8 out of 28 games.
Furthermore, of his 12 starts, Pie has faced Brewers ace Ben Sheets twice, Reds ace Aaron Harang once, Rockies ace Aaron Cook once, and Cardinals ace Adam Wainright once. That's 5 starts out of his 12 against pitchers currently ranked fifth, sixth, tenth, and thirteenth in ERA in the National League.
Of his remaining seven starts, one came against Reds phenom Johnny Cueto, who sports a 5.17 ERA but also 49 strikeouts in 47 innings, a 5-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a 1.15 WHIP.
Of his remaining six starts, two came against Jeff Suppan, who is pretty much the very definition of a league-average innings-eater.
Of his remaining four starts, two came against Dave Bush and Chris Sampson, neither of whom is without promise but both of whom have been solidly bad pitchers so far this year.
The last two starts were against monumentally bad pitchers Matt Morris and Nelson Figueroa, although to be fair, the latter hurler isn't at all as bad as the former.
To sum up:
- Despite his youth and obvious need to get playing time in order to develop as a hitter, Felix Pie has barely started more than a third of the team's games
- When he does start, he often plays the best the opposition has to offer, with fully half of his starts coming against the aces of the opposing team, plus Johnny Cueto
- Only four of his starts have come against pitchers that would qualify as bad
Lou Piniella desperately needs to stop forcing Pie to cool his heels on the bench for days on end, only to play against the best of the National League. That's not fair, and more importantly, it's no way to develop a player.
Monday, May 5, 2008
Um...
As a baseball fan, I am naturally extremely skeptical of anything ever said by the upper-management types of any team. So I found this interview with Cubs Chairman Crane Kenney on Bleed Cubby Blue very interesting. While I find much of what he says to be, quite frankly, a bunch of bull, I will give the man credit for doing this in-depth interview with a Cubs blog. It can't be easy allowing yourself to be interviewed by a dedicated fan, who runs his own website, can ask any question he feels like, and doesn't have to worry about losing access if he pushes the envelope.
That said, while I understand that Kenney's main goal is to push the company line, I'm not sure I can countenance everything he says.
Near the end of the interview, Kenney admits that the he (and, by extension, the Cubs) has made a few errors in judgement:
It is comforting to know that the Cubs higher-ups have internalized the fact that they've made some very unpopular decisions over the last few years. The rooftop situation, when the Cubs tried putting up a screen to block the views of the game from tops of the buildings across the street, involved some major PR errors. Watching games from the rooftops is not only fun, but also a tradition Chicagoans view as one of the things that make the Cubs and Wrigley Field so unique. Even though those buildings are now owned by corporate entities who have turned the experience into a homogenized money-making venture, most people don't know that, and when the Cubs so blatantly tried to extract a fee from those businesses it appeared to be less a business dispute than a protection racket. I have no idea if Kenney was in any way responsible for the decisions surrounding the rooftops, but if were to find out he was, I'd be vastly less likely to trust his decision-making acumen.
Another illuminating interchange involved controversial reports that the Cubs are considering selling naming rights for Wrigley Field:
Well, I'm glad that one of the priorities for the team is to win a championship, but since that's pretty much sports boilerplate I'm going to move on to his subsequent two goals. He mentions that he wants to keep playing at Wrigley - as if that's a goal! Wrigley Field is a money-making facility along the lines of Fenway Park or...the Coliseum in Rome? I can't think of any other sporting locale that combines history, nostalgia, beauty, and fame into such a popular, profitable bit of property. The clear implication in this sentence is that there's a chance that the Cubs won't be playing in Wrigley Field one day, and because the context surrounding that statement is a discussion of naming rights, Kenney seems to be implicitly implying that unless the Cubs were to receive a large infusion of cash then terrible and drastic measures must be taken. The truth, of course, is that the Cubs will never leave Wrigley, because besides being an ATM, it is also beloved by just about everyone. Any attempt to leave the stadium would be met with such stringent opposition that the Cubs would be hard pressed to recover - it would be a PR move as disastrous as the the infamous "Small 'n' Flaccid" campaign. This is classic sports team threat-ese, the first step in the long campaign (usually) to extort money from the team's fanbase in the form of tax dollars for a new or renovated stadium. His third point indicates that in this instance, he's trying to subtly insinuate that the Cubs will be unprofitable or incapable of competing with their current profit levels unless they sell naming rights, which is almost certainly a lie (as Kenney points out in the interview, the Cubs are fifth in the majors in payroll, and who really doubts that they could go higher?).
The next section actually does include the team's demand that the citizens of Illinois subsidize the Cubs' revenues. Referencing the proposed plan to get the Illinois Sports Facility Authority involved in large-scale renovations of Wrigley Field, Kenney had this to say:
Unpacking this somewhat, I think what Kenney is saying is this:
1. Municipal bonds will be issued to the tune of $200-300 million dollars to pay for the renovation costs
2. The team and the Tribune Corporation will contribute to the repayment of the bonds to some as-yet-unspecified degree (re: the minimum degree necessary to pull the wool over the eyes of the public)
3. The remainder of the repayment will come from a scheme in which taxes raised inside the stadium (on food, beer, merchandise, etc.) that goes to the city, county, and state will be capped at their current rate. For the next 30 years, as taxes increase, any tax revenues above that capped rate (for example, if taxes were 10% on beer in year before this scheme begins, and raised to 10.5% the following year, we'd be talking about money raised from that extra .5% only) will go towards repayment of the bonds
Now, Kenney was specifically asked how the involvement of IFSA would not involve taxpayer dollars, and this was his answer. The only reason this proposal is favored by the team is because sounds great to be able to say that the bond repayment will come from taxes on things bought only within the stadium - as if this means that the bond repayment will be entirely financed by the team, the Trib, and Cubs fans who choose to attend the games. The problem is, it's bunk.
Every one of the tax dollars going to repay the bonds will NOT be going to the general coffers of the city, county, and state. So whatever that total is - and you can bet it will be large, because the Trib and the Cubs will want to pay as little as possible for the renovations and also 30 years is a very long time - it will be money not available for busing and schools and parks and libraries and fixing potholes. Which means that the true cost will be paid in (probably large) part by the taxpayers, despite Kenney's assurances otherwise.
Oh, and if this scheme sounds familiar, it may be because you've heard of its cousin, tax increment financing.
There are other interesting tidbits in the interview, including updates on the sale of the team (short version: no comment) and a discussion of this year's ludicrous schedule. I highly recommend the read, because I'm pretty sure it serves as a rough guide for the next few years' worth of bitter fights between Chicagoans and the greedy Cubs management.
That said, while I understand that Kenney's main goal is to push the company line, I'm not sure I can countenance everything he says.
Near the end of the interview, Kenney admits that the he (and, by extension, the Cubs) has made a few errors in judgement:
We’re not gonna bat 1.000. I look back on my six years now and listen, we’ve made our mistakes. Taking the names off the jerseys -- probably not one of my better decisions. Some of the things we’ve done related to the rooftops, probably not.
It is comforting to know that the Cubs higher-ups have internalized the fact that they've made some very unpopular decisions over the last few years. The rooftop situation, when the Cubs tried putting up a screen to block the views of the game from tops of the buildings across the street, involved some major PR errors. Watching games from the rooftops is not only fun, but also a tradition Chicagoans view as one of the things that make the Cubs and Wrigley Field so unique. Even though those buildings are now owned by corporate entities who have turned the experience into a homogenized money-making venture, most people don't know that, and when the Cubs so blatantly tried to extract a fee from those businesses it appeared to be less a business dispute than a protection racket. I have no idea if Kenney was in any way responsible for the decisions surrounding the rooftops, but if were to find out he was, I'd be vastly less likely to trust his decision-making acumen.
Another illuminating interchange involved controversial reports that the Cubs are considering selling naming rights for Wrigley Field:
So we have three priorities. The first priority is to win a championship...Second priority is we enjoy this ball field. We think it’s a great facility. We want to keep playing here. We want to win that championship here, on the corner of Clark and Addison.
Our third priority is we’d love the name to remain Wrigley Field. And what I said at the convention was: if changing number three lets me accomplish goals number one and number two I have to think about it...
if you look at the two most recent deals done in New York, Barclays for the new Nets arena and Citi for the new Mets stadium – you know $20 million a year for 20 years, it’s $400 million. $400 million could go into stadium renovation. $400 million could go into player payrolls, scouting, everything we’ve been talking about.
Well, I'm glad that one of the priorities for the team is to win a championship, but since that's pretty much sports boilerplate I'm going to move on to his subsequent two goals. He mentions that he wants to keep playing at Wrigley - as if that's a goal! Wrigley Field is a money-making facility along the lines of Fenway Park or...the Coliseum in Rome? I can't think of any other sporting locale that combines history, nostalgia, beauty, and fame into such a popular, profitable bit of property. The clear implication in this sentence is that there's a chance that the Cubs won't be playing in Wrigley Field one day, and because the context surrounding that statement is a discussion of naming rights, Kenney seems to be implicitly implying that unless the Cubs were to receive a large infusion of cash then terrible and drastic measures must be taken. The truth, of course, is that the Cubs will never leave Wrigley, because besides being an ATM, it is also beloved by just about everyone. Any attempt to leave the stadium would be met with such stringent opposition that the Cubs would be hard pressed to recover - it would be a PR move as disastrous as the the infamous "Small 'n' Flaccid" campaign. This is classic sports team threat-ese, the first step in the long campaign (usually) to extort money from the team's fanbase in the form of tax dollars for a new or renovated stadium. His third point indicates that in this instance, he's trying to subtly insinuate that the Cubs will be unprofitable or incapable of competing with their current profit levels unless they sell naming rights, which is almost certainly a lie (as Kenney points out in the interview, the Cubs are fifth in the majors in payroll, and who really doubts that they could go higher?).
The next section actually does include the team's demand that the citizens of Illinois subsidize the Cubs' revenues. Referencing the proposed plan to get the Illinois Sports Facility Authority involved in large-scale renovations of Wrigley Field, Kenney had this to say:
...the sources of funding for this transaction will come exclusively from inside this building. So what we would do is we would take what we call the transactional taxes that are paid here, sales taxes that are paid in the building on food, drink, merchandise, amusement taxes that are paid on ticket sales, use taxes, etc. Those taxes that are right now being paid inside the building for money being spent here, we would use a baseline year of 2007 and then all the incremental taxes that otherwise would have been paid into the general coffers above that baseline year would now go to support a bond issue which would renovate the stadium over 30 years. So the source of the funding comes from three places. One is Tribune would make a substantial contribution…BCB: Tribune or new ownership?
CK: No, Tribune. Sam Zell was pretty clear. He said if we can do the ISFA transaction it has to be a three-way partnership between the team, Tribune as the current owner and the future owner, ISFA. So all three parties who have an interest in it will actually make a contribution toward it. So, Tribune would make a big contribution, the team would have an annual payment in this structure to repay these bonds. So backing up a minute… bonds would be issued, municipal bonds, tax free bonds. And again a pretty efficient financing structure because they’re being issued by the state. So tax-free bonds are issued. Those proceeds in that 200, 300 million dollar range, are used to make these renovations happen. And then those bonds are repaid over 30 years and the source of that repayment is Tribune contribution, team contribution and then this incremental transactional tax that occurs inside this building.
BCB: So in other words, there would be an increase in some things that people buy here in terms of concessions…
CK: If we raise the price of beer from $5.25 to $5.50, that will occur. It’s just the taxes that would have been paid above a flat level… let’s just say today all of those taxes in total are $10 million that go to the City in ’07. The city, the county, the state. So it’s $10 million today. In ’08, let’s say because of ticket prices going up, concession prices going up, that percentage that you pay of amusement tax, etc., makes that number $11 million or $12 million. The $1 or $2 million difference between the base number and the increment, that's what would go to repay the bonds. So, it’s a way for the city, the state and the county to participate by saying pay us what you did last year for the next 30 years but all the incremental taxes that otherwise would come to us that are generated in the building stay in the building.
BCB: So the baseline is the year before or there’s a baseline year?
CK: The baseline year would be chosen. I’m just using ’07 because that’s last year. So if we got the deal done this year you’d say okay, after the ’07 amount that was paid, all incremental amounts will go to service the facility and I think the elegance of it is what you’re essentially doing is asking people who use the building to support its improvement. So, if you’re buying your tickets, you’re buying your merchandise here, normally the taxes that are collected above the baseline would go into general use, but we’re basically saying you’re here, you’re spending the money at Wrigley Field and you probably enjoy the ballpark, let’s have that money instead of going into general funds, stay here for the renovations.
BCB: So no general tax revenue from the city, county, the state…
CK: And this is where all the fallacy, there’s no property taxes on people outside the building. There’s no additional sales on stuff that’s being purchased in our building. It’s just the increment above the baseline year.
Unpacking this somewhat, I think what Kenney is saying is this:
1. Municipal bonds will be issued to the tune of $200-300 million dollars to pay for the renovation costs
2. The team and the Tribune Corporation will contribute to the repayment of the bonds to some as-yet-unspecified degree (re: the minimum degree necessary to pull the wool over the eyes of the public)
3. The remainder of the repayment will come from a scheme in which taxes raised inside the stadium (on food, beer, merchandise, etc.) that goes to the city, county, and state will be capped at their current rate. For the next 30 years, as taxes increase, any tax revenues above that capped rate (for example, if taxes were 10% on beer in year before this scheme begins, and raised to 10.5% the following year, we'd be talking about money raised from that extra .5% only) will go towards repayment of the bonds
Now, Kenney was specifically asked how the involvement of IFSA would not involve taxpayer dollars, and this was his answer. The only reason this proposal is favored by the team is because sounds great to be able to say that the bond repayment will come from taxes on things bought only within the stadium - as if this means that the bond repayment will be entirely financed by the team, the Trib, and Cubs fans who choose to attend the games. The problem is, it's bunk.
Every one of the tax dollars going to repay the bonds will NOT be going to the general coffers of the city, county, and state. So whatever that total is - and you can bet it will be large, because the Trib and the Cubs will want to pay as little as possible for the renovations and also 30 years is a very long time - it will be money not available for busing and schools and parks and libraries and fixing potholes. Which means that the true cost will be paid in (probably large) part by the taxpayers, despite Kenney's assurances otherwise.
Oh, and if this scheme sounds familiar, it may be because you've heard of its cousin, tax increment financing.
There are other interesting tidbits in the interview, including updates on the sale of the team (short version: no comment) and a discussion of this year's ludicrous schedule. I highly recommend the read, because I'm pretty sure it serves as a rough guide for the next few years' worth of bitter fights between Chicagoans and the greedy Cubs management.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
And They Have A Plan
I agree with the first part of this post:
The Cubs are a completely different team on offense than I remember them ever being. No matter how good or (usually) terrible the Cubbie offense may be in any given year, the one constant was that the Cubs would never take many walks. Always - always! - displaying poor plate discipline, the Cubs would hack and flail at just about any pitch thrown towards home plate.
This year, however, the Cubs seem to be attacking the pitcher with a plan in mind. The hitters are patiently waiting for something to hit, and even notably hack-tastic youngsters like Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno are clearly making a conscious effort to get ahead in the count. I don't know the cause of this either - although Fukudome's fantastic example is certainly a strong possibility - but I hope like hell that it keeps up. This lineup has enough power that it would simply be a crime not to have lots of men on base when the homers are hit. If they gave out awards to coaches, I'd say the Cubs hitting coach would have to be an early favorite.
On the hitting side, it is the first time I have seen Cubs players walk to the plate and look like they have a plan. Whether Fukudome is wearing off on the other players or not, the fact is that the Cubs are more patient at the plate from the top to the bottom of the order...
The Cubs are a completely different team on offense than I remember them ever being. No matter how good or (usually) terrible the Cubbie offense may be in any given year, the one constant was that the Cubs would never take many walks. Always - always! - displaying poor plate discipline, the Cubs would hack and flail at just about any pitch thrown towards home plate.
This year, however, the Cubs seem to be attacking the pitcher with a plan in mind. The hitters are patiently waiting for something to hit, and even notably hack-tastic youngsters like Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno are clearly making a conscious effort to get ahead in the count. I don't know the cause of this either - although Fukudome's fantastic example is certainly a strong possibility - but I hope like hell that it keeps up. This lineup has enough power that it would simply be a crime not to have lots of men on base when the homers are hit. If they gave out awards to coaches, I'd say the Cubs hitting coach would have to be an early favorite.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Miscellany
- I still hate Fox. Yesterday I was watching the Phillies-Mets match-up on that godforsaken network and was forced to endure the "stylings" of Mr. Tim McCarver. In the bottom of the eighth, the Phillies were down 4-2 with the bases loaded, one out, and pinch-hitter Geoff Jenkins at the plate. The Mets had Aaron Heilman on the mound. Heilman was clearly struggling with his location, and the Phillies looked like they were very close to tying things up. So why was Heilman - a righty - allowed to stay in against the lefty Jenkins? According to McCarver, it was because the Mets only had one lefty remaining in the bullpen in closer Billy Wagner and since it was the eight inning, it was "too early to bring him in." This was clearly the most important at-bat of the game. But because it wasn't within the prescribed duty of the modern closer, the Mets couldn't bring in their best pitcher. And Tim McCarver once again shows off his single digit IQ.
- The Blue Jays released Frank Thomas today, probably because he was complaining about his lack of playing time. He claimed he was benched because his contract contained a vestment clause that increased his pay if he attained a certain number of at-bats over the course of the season. He and GM J.P. Ricciardi apparantly had a sit-down and mutually agreed upon his release. He's going to be a valuable pickup for somebody - Detroit needs a DH while Sheffield is hurt, the Yankees might need someone (although both he and Giambi are DHs who can't really play first base anymore), the Mariners might want to improve on Jose Vidro...there's lots of options. However, the Comcast Sportsnet commentators I saw a few minutes ago arguing that the Royals could use him are just plain nuts. The Royals have young Billy Butler around to fill that role for the foreseeable future, and since neither Butler nor Thomas can play any other position, there's no need for the veteran on this club.
- It is very early in the season, and people should be careful about making too much out of the results up to this point. Any team can have a good (or terrible) two weeks, and the the fact that the Tigers are 6-12 is only so notable because the calendar reads "April." If the Tigers went 6-12 in, say, June, it'd be noted as a bad stretch of ball but ultimately something that can be overcome rather than as a portent of the remainder of the team's season. That said, I think I may have underrated the Diamondbacks and overrated the Dodgers. The Dodgers don't appear to be quite as youth-oriented as I'd like, and the injuries they've suffered have seemingly masked their unfortunate commitment to crummy vets (re: Nomar). The DBacks, on the other hand, have the feel of a young team whose players are all starting to mature at the same time. Like the early 90's Braves, but with most of the talent on offense rather than in the pitching staff, the Snakes have the ability to put together a dominant team in the relatively weak National League. As I said, it is early yet, but if everything breaks right I think this team could absolutely storm the league.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
What comes up must come down
So Alfonso Soriano hurt himself a couple days ago, to the tune of a 15-day DL stint. The Cubs brought up 2B Eric Patterson, Corey's little brother, didn't start him in his first game, then gave him a start before sending him back to the minors today for Matt Murton. Murton, you may recall, is the solid corner outfielder the Cubs have had languishing in the minors.
Why did they even bring up Patterson? The Cubs are lousy with second baseman (by my count, DeRosa, Cedeno, Theriot, and Fontenot all play the position) and, as noted here, replacing Soriano's bat by playing, in essence, two second baseman is not very productive. The stated reason for bringing up Murton is that the Cubs will "be facing some left-handed pitchers, and the teams we're playing have some left-handers in the bullpen," according to Lou Piniella. But wasn't this forseeable a couple days ago, when they brought up Patterson? All of this smacks of nothing more than lazy team management.
Also, I've been busy and wanted to do a post examining Derrek Lee's claim that his hot hitting this year is a result of his hitting more fly balls and less grounders. But before I could get to it Derek Smart at the excellent Cub Town blog wrote exactly what I was going to:
However, I must disagree with this conclusion:
Why did they even bring up Patterson? The Cubs are lousy with second baseman (by my count, DeRosa, Cedeno, Theriot, and Fontenot all play the position) and, as noted here, replacing Soriano's bat by playing, in essence, two second baseman is not very productive. The stated reason for bringing up Murton is that the Cubs will "be facing some left-handed pitchers, and the teams we're playing have some left-handers in the bullpen," according to Lou Piniella. But wasn't this forseeable a couple days ago, when they brought up Patterson? All of this smacks of nothing more than lazy team management.
Also, I've been busy and wanted to do a post examining Derrek Lee's claim that his hot hitting this year is a result of his hitting more fly balls and less grounders. But before I could get to it Derek Smart at the excellent Cub Town blog wrote exactly what I was going to:
I've included this season, last season, and his breakout 2005 for comparison. As you can see, he's actually hitting fewer flies this year compared to last, and if I'd included his entire career, you'd see he's hitting groudballs at a higher rate in 2008 than he did in any other year. He is, however, getting a ridiculous number of his flies to leave the yard - well above the rate he showed in that great 2005 season...
However, I must disagree with this conclusion:
Derek's post shows that the real reason Lee's hitting so many homers so far is that his rate of home runs per fly ball is astronomically higher than his career averages. Whether it is because Lee has been hot or just a small sample size fluke, it isn't an indication that the best hitter in 2005 has returned completely to form.
Whether it's because his wrist feels better, he's seeing more cookies, or having one more biscuit for breakfast, it appears in the early going that the monster of 2005 - The Savior - has returned.
I'm Back
The last two+ weeks have been very, very busy for me. I've been doing things like traveling and determining my future graduate school and city of residence and have had little to no time for keeping up this blog. But I have time now, and promise to post a lot more than, you know, every three weeks.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Short Takes on Predictions
AL East:
AL Central:
Indians: The Tigers and Indians are two very closely matched teams. The reason I like the Indians over the Tigers is that their holes are easier to fix; the easiest positions to upgrade during the season are the corner positions, and this lineup only needs help at left field, right field, and third base. Their pitching won't be as good as last year, when Sabathia threw approximately 700 innings and Carmona completely blew away the league, but it's a team strength nonetheless. The Tribe will also enjoy a shut-down bullpen, something the next team will be wishing for three out of every four games.
Tigers: (Wild Card) The Tigers probably won't score 1,000 runs, although it's easy to convince yourself that they might. The team boasts a lineup capable of crushing just about any pitcher's best stuff, and there's really no letup. I like Steven Goldman's tongue-in-cheek suggestion of keeping a 1,000-run-o-meter during the season - the Tigers don't have great depth, and it won't be easy to replace the production of any player in that lineup in the case of an injury. If Bonderman can put everything together, he and Verlander make for a great 1-2 at the top of the rotation, but the bullpen just isn't any good. Any game where the starting pitcher doesn't go at least five innings could quickly turn into a 10-8 slugfest. Even so, the Tigers could probably give about 120 runs scored to the Giants and still finish above the other teams in the division. (The Giants, on the other hand, would probably still have a below average offense...)
Twins: So they lost their team captain and starting center fielder to free agency, and traded away the best pitcher in baseball for meager returns. So Joe Mauer may never hit more than 20 homers in a season. So the combined ages of their starting outfielders wouldn't earn a senior citizen discount, and they're starting the wrong player at DH - again. That doesn't mean they aren't better than the White Sox. This team has young pitching out the wazoo, and the combination of a lightning-quick outfield and Adam Everett at short means that those young hurlers should break into the majors with a stellar defense backing them up. They won't score much, true, but I think Mauer and Kubel and Morneau will help propel them to something like a .500 record.
White Sox: Yes, the offense last year was horrid. Yes, the offense last year was so terrible in part because they had historically bad luck with BABIP, untimely injuries, and young players who never really developed. Yes, they can therefore expect a significant bounceback, which doesn't even include the valuable additions of Alexei Ramirez and Nick Swisher. Yes, last year's bullpen was about as fun to watch as Christian porn and five times as likely to result in scoring. Yes, I'm using the exact same rhetorical device I used in the Twins section. And finally, yes, the team will be better this year. But the prospects aren't that good, Ozzie's starting the veterans anyhow, and everyone on the team is aging. This is one freakishly assembled baseball club, and it'll be fun to watch because of it, but it sure as hell won't be any good.
Royals: Don't assume you can just dismiss the team as a perennial doormat, like I so gleefully did with the O's this year. The Royals will probably come in last place, but for the first time in years it's because of the right reasons. This team is all about it's young core - Butler, Gordon, Greinke, Moustakas, Hochevar, and Soria - and everything else is secondary. Every other useful part, from Gil Meche to Jose Guillen to Brian Bannister to The G Man, is about keeping the team above water and possibly converting them into useful parts via trade for the first good Royals team. I honestly believe that there's a plan, and that this team will not f*ck up the draft again. Look out, AL Central in 2011.
AL West:
Angels: Only because the Mariners are so out of their freakin' minds. I remember when this division was Chuck Norris-before-the-embarrassing-political-foray tough, but those days are long gone. Once Lackey comes back, the Halos will begin the slow and systematic accumulation of victories over the M's, A's, and Rangers. The offense is deep, and talented, and has the young players (Kendrick, Kotchman, maybe even Wood) with as good a shot at bursting out as the old guys have of breaking down. Scioscia is as good a manager as there is, and has shown an ability to mix and match players offensively (Figgins, DaVanon, Willits, Spezio, Fullmer) and defensively (the bullpen, since 2002) in a manner consistent with a winning ballclub. It's not a great team, and a big step down from the big guys in the Central and East, but it's far from bad.
Mariners: I expect a lot of things to go wrong with this team. Maybe it's because no team should be able to thrive with dead weight or below-average production at first, left, right, and DH - aka Sexson, Ibanez, Wilkerson, and Vidro - and compete. Maybe it's because the team gave away the center fielder who could push Ichiro back into a corner, thus improving the outfield defense, while switching Ibanez to first base and jettisoning Sexson, which fixes the first base black hole, in order to acquire an admittedly good starting pitcher with an injury history longer than this sentence. Maybe it's because no team should be rewarded for giving Carlos Silva $48 million. They're nuts to think they can compete this year, especially in a division you have to win in order to make the playoffs.
A's: Here's how I see the season unfolding: the A's do better than predicted through the first couple months of the season, although not amazingly well. The media chorus will demand GM Billy Beane improve the club for the stretch run, but he'll see through the lucky start, and the performances from oft-injured players like Harden that he can't expect for the rest of the season, and will finish the rebuilding process by shipping out Blanton and Ellis to some desperate NL teams. I'm looking at you, New York Mets.
Rangers: They can't really hit. They won't field. They still can't pitch. Yes, they'd compete in the NL Central, but AL teams are expected to do more than show up to the ballpark on time. If they play their cards right, they will arrange for things to come together 3 years from now when all that good young talent, especially catching talent, matures. In the mean time, they suck and they're boring.
NL East:
Mets: I really, really wanted to pick someone else here, and not just because I dislike the Mets. If Major League Baseball was like a video game, and you could turn injuries "off," then the Mets would be the clear favorites. But reality bites, as they say, and this team is like one gigantic oozing pus of an injury. Moises Alou is already out to start the season. Beltran deals with his bumps and bruises every season. Delgado is aging rapidly and physically in decline, even if I really like his politics. Luis Castillo is all about speed, but he's getting old and stiff. Even Jose Reyes had hamstring injuries in the past that could get scary if they come back. The pitching staff includes El Duque, which means "Age 49" in Spanish, and Pedro Martinez, who fights dogs with his little people pals in between devastating arm and shoulder injuries. And there's NO freaking depth, no minor league replacements, no nothing should anybody go down. If the Mets are healthy, they win 95 and the division. But this season could implode quickly if if they don't.
Braves: Just based on track record, really. They hit a ton and have the horses in the rotation to take them far. If Frenchy Larou really does have that breakout season, and one of their 10,000 good center field prospects has a great rookie season, everybody better lookout. Then again, they're relying on Mike Hampton - on purpose. The bullpen is marginal, at best. And this absolutely positively cannot be the year John Smoltz acts his age.
Phillies: Yes, 3/4 of that infield is just insane. And Pat Burrell can hit a little, I think. But I don't buy the rotation or bullpen for a second. Cole Hamels is a star, if he can stay healthy. Bret Myers, Wife Beater Esquire...well, I'm just rooting hard for him to fail completely. Tom Gordon might stay healthy for three months, and Brad Lidge will likely do alright. But no other pitcher on this team is even remotely reliable.
Nationals: I love their new ballpark, their manager, many of their young position players, and the direction the minor league system is going in. I absolutely love the steals the team made over the winter, and that this franchise is willing to take troubled but talented young players in order to get themselves out of the cellar. That said, I could assemble a more accomplished pitching staff from the cast of Lost. Look for Chad Cordero to be traded midseason.
Marlins: Hanley Ramirez is the best hitter in the division, David Wright and Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley and Chipper Jones be damned. Uggla is just about the most entertaining second baseman in baseball, and an offensive plus to boot. Hermida, Jacobs, Maybin, Miller, etc. are all or will be very good players. But whoo doggy! This team blows. Easily the worst ownership in American sports, now that Bill Wirtz is dead.
NL Central:
Brewers: I know, I know. But I think this team is 180 innings of Ben Sheets away from taking the top spot. There's just too much talent on this team to allow it to stagnate again, and I don't think anyone should count on a massive second-half fade again. I'm not saying they are a lock: there's injury risk everywhere, especially in the suddenly thin rotation, and the bullpen is a big question mark, and the defense just might not get good enough to help the pitchers. I'm just betting that those things won't hold the team back, and a great heart of the lineup will join hands with Sheets and Gallardo and Parra to form a really tough Red Rover team, or something. However, if they should fail, Ned Yost will have to be fired; I know Brewers fans don't like him already and he's got the talent right now to succeed.
Cubs: (Wild Card) See the season preview. This team is absolutely good enough to win the division, and there's no real reason why I don't think they will beyond a gut feeling. But every position except shortstop and maybe center is solid to great, the rotation is one of the better ones in the league, the bullpen will probably be a strong asset, and there's reinforcements in the minors. I guess I'm just hedging my bets based on a long tradition of this team being the Chicago Cubs. Honestly, given the rest of the division, I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers and Cubs just pad their win totals until both are locks to make the playoffs and don't care in what order.
Astros: I'm really only picking them third because they're crazy. You know how crazy guys sometimes have superhuman strength or an ability to withstand a lot of pain, like when people get high on PCP? That's this team. They are weak all around, but completely and utterly committed to winning this year. The minor league system is more barren than George Bush's soul, and as far as I know nobody in the front office has ever started even a single war. Unlike Bush, when the fall rolls around they will face a very uncomfortable reckoning.
Reds: OK, there's actually a second reason why I'm picking the Astros for third place. Dusty Baker, the worst manager in baseball, is at the helm this year for the historic franchise. That's right, the guy who has successfully broken in one - count 'em, one - decent major league regular hitter in his entire, decade-plus coaching career is running a team filled to the brim with exciting young talent. The man who singlehandedly destroyed Mark Prior's career, and severely derailed Kerry Wood's, is now in charge of two top pitching prospects in Cueto and Bailey. On top of all that, the Reds brought in Corey Patterson - whose failures to develop as a player Cubs fans place solely at the feet of Mr. Baker - and his .298 OBP to start over a top-notch prospect and lead off. Just wait, Reds fans, just wait. I'll see you at the press conference where Dusty uses his elementary-age child to deflect tough questions from reporters. Again.
Cardinals: Albert Pujols = good. Troy Glaus, Adam Wainright, Jason Isringhousen, Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan = meh. Everyone else = ye gads. Tony La Russa = total dick; drunkard; hates the GM. If Pujols gets surgery for his arm, the Cardinals = Pirates West. It's early, but it sure feels good to be a Cubs fan.
Pirates: The Cardinals, minus Pujols. Lots of good complementary players, in the Bays and Nadys and Pearces and Wilsons, and a good closer, and maybe better starting pitching. But there's just not that much difference between the two franchises at the moment, excepting two very good prospects the Cardinals have in the minors. Here's to 16 losing seasons in a row!
NL West:
Dodgers: Touch call, but I think Torre may actually stick with the youth this year. The Dodgers aren't any better than the Rox or Padres or Diamondbacks if Garciapparra and Pierre and company are getting a lot of starts. If Ethier and Loney and LaRoche and Kemp are allowed to step into their own, however, watch out. This team also has a good second baseman in Kent, and the best catcher in the NL in Martin. The pitching is solid all the way through, and occasionally brilliant, and the minor league system is still stocked. Of course, if Torre (aided and abetted by Colletti) go the veteran route, all bets are off. Kevin Goldstein, BP prospect maven, said that last year at the trade deadline Colletti was about to trade uber-prospect Clayton Kershaw, and the player development staff actually had to sit him down and explain, slowly, just how valuable the young lefty is. So the Dodgers aren't exactly a lock, if you get my drift.
Diamondbacks: Think last year's team, minus 8 games to correct for how lucky they were, plus 5 games because the talented young players have a year of experience in the bigs now, plus 3 games with the addition of Haren. Then throw in a luck modifier. This team could win 92, or 82. Tough to tell, but I'm guessing 85 mostly because I expect the bullpen to be worse this year.
Rockies: Last year's team really was good. There's nothing all that different about them this year, really. The thing is, I just can't see them playing quite as well defensively - one of the things sabermetricians have learned over the years is that players and teams have fluke years on defense as well as offense. I think they played above their heads a bit defensively last year, and the craptacular pitching staff they throw out there this year won't benefit from the players behind them as much. Tulo, though, is a monster.
Padres: The Padres have been Wiley E. Coyote, running on air after leaving the cliff behind, for a few years now. This is almost certainly the most creative team in baseball, constantly finding other team's discards and unwanted/underrated role players and turning them into valuable contributors. I think this is the year they finally look down, as the rest of the division is finally good enough where that kind of margin-juggling just isn't enough anymore. Plus, they have the worst outfield in the majors, except for the next team.
Giants: Lincecum and Cain and pray for acid rain to destroy the playing field. Joe DiMaggio once hit safely in 56 straight contests; I think this team might just fail to hit safely in 57 straight. Seriously though, folks, any starting pitcher opposing this team's lineup is 3-1 to throw a perfect game. In fact, when Marlins pitchers face the Giants batters in spacious Dolphins Stadium, the entire space time continuum may blink out of existence rather than decide how those match-ups will end. Man, I've got a million of these, including my prediction that Lincecum and Cain will form one of the top 1-2 combinations in baseball and finish the year with a combined 15-24 record. This team is starting a shortstop who hit .220 in High-A last year! I'm going to finish this miserable comment the only way I know how: The Aristocrats!
ALCS: Indians at Red Sox
NLCS: Cubs at Mets
World Series: What the hell, Cubs over Red Sox, why not already?
AL ROY: Jones
NL ROY: Fukudome
AL MOY: Maddon
NL MOY: Yost
AL Cy Young: Verlander
NL Cy Young: Santana
AL MVP: Cabrera
NL MVP: Wright
My fantasy team: 4th place.
Red Sox: The defending champs feature a strong lineup with enough depth (Lowrie, Crisp, Anderson, etc.) to keep the offense humming all season no matter how many injuries may occur. The pitching staff, featuring younger players alongside the really old, may be slightly more precarious than last year but also has more potential. Becket, Matsuzaka, and Bucholtz could combine for a truly fearsome top of the rotation come September. The bullpen is deep as well.
Yankees: I’m going our on a limb and predicting that the Yanks won’t make the playoffs, although in truth you could select any one of the AL’s elite four (Boston, NY, Cleveland, and Detroit) as the odd team out with equally good odds. The lineup will score a lot of runs, possibly even more than the Tigers, but is also aging and stiff. Would anyone be surprised if Damon, Matsui, Giambi, or even Jeter misses significant time this year? Melky Cabrera, who I think is wildly overrated by many, can’t make up for that. The pitching will be solid, but I think the young guns need this year to acclimate to the league before they can take it by storm.
Toronto: Better than the pessimists say, worse than the optimists fear. Any team with this kind of top-notch pitching staff has a puncher’s chance – even in this division. The defense is super-spectacular, especially when Eckstein isn’t playing, which makes the pitching even tougher. However, their highly balanced but star-free lineup will almost certainly not put up the kinds of numbers they require to make the playoffs.
Tampa: I know everyone wants to proclaim them the next big thing – I’m looking at you, PECOTA – but I just don’t see it happening yet. Yes, they have an undeniably historic accululation of young talent, and yes, their minor leagues are still teeming with future stars so young they can’t even remember when The Simpsons was at its peak. But if the last few years have tought us anything, it’s that very young teams relying on very young talent almost always need a year to get everyone up to major league speed (for more, see: 2006 Diamondbacks, 2006 Brewers, 2002 Marlins).
Baltimore: You know why.AL Central:
Indians: The Tigers and Indians are two very closely matched teams. The reason I like the Indians over the Tigers is that their holes are easier to fix; the easiest positions to upgrade during the season are the corner positions, and this lineup only needs help at left field, right field, and third base. Their pitching won't be as good as last year, when Sabathia threw approximately 700 innings and Carmona completely blew away the league, but it's a team strength nonetheless. The Tribe will also enjoy a shut-down bullpen, something the next team will be wishing for three out of every four games.
Tigers: (Wild Card) The Tigers probably won't score 1,000 runs, although it's easy to convince yourself that they might. The team boasts a lineup capable of crushing just about any pitcher's best stuff, and there's really no letup. I like Steven Goldman's tongue-in-cheek suggestion of keeping a 1,000-run-o-meter during the season - the Tigers don't have great depth, and it won't be easy to replace the production of any player in that lineup in the case of an injury. If Bonderman can put everything together, he and Verlander make for a great 1-2 at the top of the rotation, but the bullpen just isn't any good. Any game where the starting pitcher doesn't go at least five innings could quickly turn into a 10-8 slugfest. Even so, the Tigers could probably give about 120 runs scored to the Giants and still finish above the other teams in the division. (The Giants, on the other hand, would probably still have a below average offense...)
Twins: So they lost their team captain and starting center fielder to free agency, and traded away the best pitcher in baseball for meager returns. So Joe Mauer may never hit more than 20 homers in a season. So the combined ages of their starting outfielders wouldn't earn a senior citizen discount, and they're starting the wrong player at DH - again. That doesn't mean they aren't better than the White Sox. This team has young pitching out the wazoo, and the combination of a lightning-quick outfield and Adam Everett at short means that those young hurlers should break into the majors with a stellar defense backing them up. They won't score much, true, but I think Mauer and Kubel and Morneau will help propel them to something like a .500 record.
White Sox: Yes, the offense last year was horrid. Yes, the offense last year was so terrible in part because they had historically bad luck with BABIP, untimely injuries, and young players who never really developed. Yes, they can therefore expect a significant bounceback, which doesn't even include the valuable additions of Alexei Ramirez and Nick Swisher. Yes, last year's bullpen was about as fun to watch as Christian porn and five times as likely to result in scoring. Yes, I'm using the exact same rhetorical device I used in the Twins section. And finally, yes, the team will be better this year. But the prospects aren't that good, Ozzie's starting the veterans anyhow, and everyone on the team is aging. This is one freakishly assembled baseball club, and it'll be fun to watch because of it, but it sure as hell won't be any good.
Royals: Don't assume you can just dismiss the team as a perennial doormat, like I so gleefully did with the O's this year. The Royals will probably come in last place, but for the first time in years it's because of the right reasons. This team is all about it's young core - Butler, Gordon, Greinke, Moustakas, Hochevar, and Soria - and everything else is secondary. Every other useful part, from Gil Meche to Jose Guillen to Brian Bannister to The G Man, is about keeping the team above water and possibly converting them into useful parts via trade for the first good Royals team. I honestly believe that there's a plan, and that this team will not f*ck up the draft again. Look out, AL Central in 2011.
AL West:
Angels: Only because the Mariners are so out of their freakin' minds. I remember when this division was Chuck Norris-before-the-embarrassing-political-foray tough, but those days are long gone. Once Lackey comes back, the Halos will begin the slow and systematic accumulation of victories over the M's, A's, and Rangers. The offense is deep, and talented, and has the young players (Kendrick, Kotchman, maybe even Wood) with as good a shot at bursting out as the old guys have of breaking down. Scioscia is as good a manager as there is, and has shown an ability to mix and match players offensively (Figgins, DaVanon, Willits, Spezio, Fullmer) and defensively (the bullpen, since 2002) in a manner consistent with a winning ballclub. It's not a great team, and a big step down from the big guys in the Central and East, but it's far from bad.
Mariners: I expect a lot of things to go wrong with this team. Maybe it's because no team should be able to thrive with dead weight or below-average production at first, left, right, and DH - aka Sexson, Ibanez, Wilkerson, and Vidro - and compete. Maybe it's because the team gave away the center fielder who could push Ichiro back into a corner, thus improving the outfield defense, while switching Ibanez to first base and jettisoning Sexson, which fixes the first base black hole, in order to acquire an admittedly good starting pitcher with an injury history longer than this sentence. Maybe it's because no team should be rewarded for giving Carlos Silva $48 million. They're nuts to think they can compete this year, especially in a division you have to win in order to make the playoffs.
A's: Here's how I see the season unfolding: the A's do better than predicted through the first couple months of the season, although not amazingly well. The media chorus will demand GM Billy Beane improve the club for the stretch run, but he'll see through the lucky start, and the performances from oft-injured players like Harden that he can't expect for the rest of the season, and will finish the rebuilding process by shipping out Blanton and Ellis to some desperate NL teams. I'm looking at you, New York Mets.
Rangers: They can't really hit. They won't field. They still can't pitch. Yes, they'd compete in the NL Central, but AL teams are expected to do more than show up to the ballpark on time. If they play their cards right, they will arrange for things to come together 3 years from now when all that good young talent, especially catching talent, matures. In the mean time, they suck and they're boring.
NL East:
Mets: I really, really wanted to pick someone else here, and not just because I dislike the Mets. If Major League Baseball was like a video game, and you could turn injuries "off," then the Mets would be the clear favorites. But reality bites, as they say, and this team is like one gigantic oozing pus of an injury. Moises Alou is already out to start the season. Beltran deals with his bumps and bruises every season. Delgado is aging rapidly and physically in decline, even if I really like his politics. Luis Castillo is all about speed, but he's getting old and stiff. Even Jose Reyes had hamstring injuries in the past that could get scary if they come back. The pitching staff includes El Duque, which means "Age 49" in Spanish, and Pedro Martinez, who fights dogs with his little people pals in between devastating arm and shoulder injuries. And there's NO freaking depth, no minor league replacements, no nothing should anybody go down. If the Mets are healthy, they win 95 and the division. But this season could implode quickly if if they don't.
Braves: Just based on track record, really. They hit a ton and have the horses in the rotation to take them far. If Frenchy Larou really does have that breakout season, and one of their 10,000 good center field prospects has a great rookie season, everybody better lookout. Then again, they're relying on Mike Hampton - on purpose. The bullpen is marginal, at best. And this absolutely positively cannot be the year John Smoltz acts his age.
Phillies: Yes, 3/4 of that infield is just insane. And Pat Burrell can hit a little, I think. But I don't buy the rotation or bullpen for a second. Cole Hamels is a star, if he can stay healthy. Bret Myers, Wife Beater Esquire...well, I'm just rooting hard for him to fail completely. Tom Gordon might stay healthy for three months, and Brad Lidge will likely do alright. But no other pitcher on this team is even remotely reliable.
Nationals: I love their new ballpark, their manager, many of their young position players, and the direction the minor league system is going in. I absolutely love the steals the team made over the winter, and that this franchise is willing to take troubled but talented young players in order to get themselves out of the cellar. That said, I could assemble a more accomplished pitching staff from the cast of Lost. Look for Chad Cordero to be traded midseason.
Marlins: Hanley Ramirez is the best hitter in the division, David Wright and Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley and Chipper Jones be damned. Uggla is just about the most entertaining second baseman in baseball, and an offensive plus to boot. Hermida, Jacobs, Maybin, Miller, etc. are all or will be very good players. But whoo doggy! This team blows. Easily the worst ownership in American sports, now that Bill Wirtz is dead.
NL Central:
Brewers: I know, I know. But I think this team is 180 innings of Ben Sheets away from taking the top spot. There's just too much talent on this team to allow it to stagnate again, and I don't think anyone should count on a massive second-half fade again. I'm not saying they are a lock: there's injury risk everywhere, especially in the suddenly thin rotation, and the bullpen is a big question mark, and the defense just might not get good enough to help the pitchers. I'm just betting that those things won't hold the team back, and a great heart of the lineup will join hands with Sheets and Gallardo and Parra to form a really tough Red Rover team, or something. However, if they should fail, Ned Yost will have to be fired; I know Brewers fans don't like him already and he's got the talent right now to succeed.
Cubs: (Wild Card) See the season preview. This team is absolutely good enough to win the division, and there's no real reason why I don't think they will beyond a gut feeling. But every position except shortstop and maybe center is solid to great, the rotation is one of the better ones in the league, the bullpen will probably be a strong asset, and there's reinforcements in the minors. I guess I'm just hedging my bets based on a long tradition of this team being the Chicago Cubs. Honestly, given the rest of the division, I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers and Cubs just pad their win totals until both are locks to make the playoffs and don't care in what order.
Astros: I'm really only picking them third because they're crazy. You know how crazy guys sometimes have superhuman strength or an ability to withstand a lot of pain, like when people get high on PCP? That's this team. They are weak all around, but completely and utterly committed to winning this year. The minor league system is more barren than George Bush's soul, and as far as I know nobody in the front office has ever started even a single war. Unlike Bush, when the fall rolls around they will face a very uncomfortable reckoning.
Reds: OK, there's actually a second reason why I'm picking the Astros for third place. Dusty Baker, the worst manager in baseball, is at the helm this year for the historic franchise. That's right, the guy who has successfully broken in one - count 'em, one - decent major league regular hitter in his entire, decade-plus coaching career is running a team filled to the brim with exciting young talent. The man who singlehandedly destroyed Mark Prior's career, and severely derailed Kerry Wood's, is now in charge of two top pitching prospects in Cueto and Bailey. On top of all that, the Reds brought in Corey Patterson - whose failures to develop as a player Cubs fans place solely at the feet of Mr. Baker - and his .298 OBP to start over a top-notch prospect and lead off. Just wait, Reds fans, just wait. I'll see you at the press conference where Dusty uses his elementary-age child to deflect tough questions from reporters. Again.
Cardinals: Albert Pujols = good. Troy Glaus, Adam Wainright, Jason Isringhousen, Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan = meh. Everyone else = ye gads. Tony La Russa = total dick; drunkard; hates the GM. If Pujols gets surgery for his arm, the Cardinals = Pirates West. It's early, but it sure feels good to be a Cubs fan.
Pirates: The Cardinals, minus Pujols. Lots of good complementary players, in the Bays and Nadys and Pearces and Wilsons, and a good closer, and maybe better starting pitching. But there's just not that much difference between the two franchises at the moment, excepting two very good prospects the Cardinals have in the minors. Here's to 16 losing seasons in a row!
NL West:
Dodgers: Touch call, but I think Torre may actually stick with the youth this year. The Dodgers aren't any better than the Rox or Padres or Diamondbacks if Garciapparra and Pierre and company are getting a lot of starts. If Ethier and Loney and LaRoche and Kemp are allowed to step into their own, however, watch out. This team also has a good second baseman in Kent, and the best catcher in the NL in Martin. The pitching is solid all the way through, and occasionally brilliant, and the minor league system is still stocked. Of course, if Torre (aided and abetted by Colletti) go the veteran route, all bets are off. Kevin Goldstein, BP prospect maven, said that last year at the trade deadline Colletti was about to trade uber-prospect Clayton Kershaw, and the player development staff actually had to sit him down and explain, slowly, just how valuable the young lefty is. So the Dodgers aren't exactly a lock, if you get my drift.
Diamondbacks: Think last year's team, minus 8 games to correct for how lucky they were, plus 5 games because the talented young players have a year of experience in the bigs now, plus 3 games with the addition of Haren. Then throw in a luck modifier. This team could win 92, or 82. Tough to tell, but I'm guessing 85 mostly because I expect the bullpen to be worse this year.
Rockies: Last year's team really was good. There's nothing all that different about them this year, really. The thing is, I just can't see them playing quite as well defensively - one of the things sabermetricians have learned over the years is that players and teams have fluke years on defense as well as offense. I think they played above their heads a bit defensively last year, and the craptacular pitching staff they throw out there this year won't benefit from the players behind them as much. Tulo, though, is a monster.
Padres: The Padres have been Wiley E. Coyote, running on air after leaving the cliff behind, for a few years now. This is almost certainly the most creative team in baseball, constantly finding other team's discards and unwanted/underrated role players and turning them into valuable contributors. I think this is the year they finally look down, as the rest of the division is finally good enough where that kind of margin-juggling just isn't enough anymore. Plus, they have the worst outfield in the majors, except for the next team.
Giants: Lincecum and Cain and pray for acid rain to destroy the playing field. Joe DiMaggio once hit safely in 56 straight contests; I think this team might just fail to hit safely in 57 straight. Seriously though, folks, any starting pitcher opposing this team's lineup is 3-1 to throw a perfect game. In fact, when Marlins pitchers face the Giants batters in spacious Dolphins Stadium, the entire space time continuum may blink out of existence rather than decide how those match-ups will end. Man, I've got a million of these, including my prediction that Lincecum and Cain will form one of the top 1-2 combinations in baseball and finish the year with a combined 15-24 record. This team is starting a shortstop who hit .220 in High-A last year! I'm going to finish this miserable comment the only way I know how: The Aristocrats!
ALCS: Indians at Red Sox
NLCS: Cubs at Mets
World Series: What the hell, Cubs over Red Sox, why not already?
AL ROY: Jones
NL ROY: Fukudome
AL MOY: Maddon
NL MOY: Yost
AL Cy Young: Verlander
NL Cy Young: Santana
AL MVP: Cabrera
NL MVP: Wright
My fantasy team: 4th place.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Some Thoughts on The U.S. Season Opener
I've been watching the Nationals host the Braves in the U.S. season opener, and noticed a few interesting things along the way:
1. The outfield looks large pretty large, including deep, triangular left-center field that resembles a sort of mini version of the Bermuda Triangle in Florida. Those sort of extreme ballpark quirks really annoy me, as they make me feel like the architects are trying too hard to make the field "individual" or "unique." However, the park appears to be really quite beautiful and the announcers have been saying that you can see various D.C. landmarks from different points in the stadium, which is awesome.
2. The weather in D.C is obviously highly variable over the course of the season, and the cool weather they are experiencing tonight won't last throughout the summer. That said, it appears that balls hit hard and deep to right field, on a line, carry extremely well. The Braves hit a couple of lasers in that direction and both times the ball stayed up in the air for what felt like forever.
3. Peter Moylan has a really entertaining submariner-slider.
4. I haven't had a chance to watch the Nationals too often, but I find it hard to believe this offense will score a lot of runs. Young, Zimmerman, Johnson, and Kearns form a solid core, and Dukes and Milledge have promise. But the Braves got 24 straight batters out at one point, and the Nationals' plate appearances were terrible. This team looked like someone told them they'd be executed if they took a walk. Maybe swinging early was their game plan against Hudson, but why they'd want to just hack at every pitch a sinkerballer throws is beyond me.
5. Zimmerman won it with a walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth, a pretty spectacular finish for the first game in Nationals Park history. Now I have yet another reason to list Zimmerman as one of my favorite players.
6. Nats closer Chad Cordero was warming up with the lead during the bottom of the eighth, but Jon Rauch came in to close instead. I'm pretty sure I could here a million fantasy baseball team owners groan in unison when the top of the ninth began, sort of like how Obi Wan Kenobe could feel the disturbance in the force. Cordero was apparently stiff warming up, and lo and behold - Rauch blew the save.
7. Odalis Perez isn't a very good starting pitcher, but despite everyone snarking out over his being a horrid opening day pitcher, he turned in a good performance. You can see why he's been able to stick around so long - he throws hardish, with decent movement, for a lefty. He is also high effort (five innings tonight) and will probably never have great command.
1. The outfield looks large pretty large, including deep, triangular left-center field that resembles a sort of mini version of the Bermuda Triangle in Florida. Those sort of extreme ballpark quirks really annoy me, as they make me feel like the architects are trying too hard to make the field "individual" or "unique." However, the park appears to be really quite beautiful and the announcers have been saying that you can see various D.C. landmarks from different points in the stadium, which is awesome.
2. The weather in D.C is obviously highly variable over the course of the season, and the cool weather they are experiencing tonight won't last throughout the summer. That said, it appears that balls hit hard and deep to right field, on a line, carry extremely well. The Braves hit a couple of lasers in that direction and both times the ball stayed up in the air for what felt like forever.
3. Peter Moylan has a really entertaining submariner-slider.
4. I haven't had a chance to watch the Nationals too often, but I find it hard to believe this offense will score a lot of runs. Young, Zimmerman, Johnson, and Kearns form a solid core, and Dukes and Milledge have promise. But the Braves got 24 straight batters out at one point, and the Nationals' plate appearances were terrible. This team looked like someone told them they'd be executed if they took a walk. Maybe swinging early was their game plan against Hudson, but why they'd want to just hack at every pitch a sinkerballer throws is beyond me.
5. Zimmerman won it with a walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth, a pretty spectacular finish for the first game in Nationals Park history. Now I have yet another reason to list Zimmerman as one of my favorite players.
6. Nats closer Chad Cordero was warming up with the lead during the bottom of the eighth, but Jon Rauch came in to close instead. I'm pretty sure I could here a million fantasy baseball team owners groan in unison when the top of the ninth began, sort of like how Obi Wan Kenobe could feel the disturbance in the force. Cordero was apparently stiff warming up, and lo and behold - Rauch blew the save.
7. Odalis Perez isn't a very good starting pitcher, but despite everyone snarking out over his being a horrid opening day pitcher, he turned in a good performance. You can see why he's been able to stick around so long - he throws hardish, with decent movement, for a lefty. He is also high effort (five innings tonight) and will probably never have great command.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Que Pasa, Matt Murton?
We take a break from our regularly scheduled Cubs Season Preview to bring you this breaking announcement:
Ronny Cedeno and Mike Fontenot will make the Cubs' final 25, and with the addition of Reed Johnson, Murton appears to be headed to Triple-A Iowa. Cubs general manager Jim Hendry has been trying to work a deal to find someplace for the right-handed-hitting outfielder to play.
"I like Murton," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said Thursday. "I mentioned [Wednesday] that if things don't work out here, I hope he gets a chance at a big league job. I think Jim feels the same way. I think Murton has options."
It's more or less a maxim in baseball that if, on the very day that he makes you the last batter cut in spring training, the manager of your team tells the media that he thinks you should be playing in the big leagues, and that he hopes you get that opportunity, you should start packing your bags and reading up on the housing markets in Seattle or Cleveland or something.
Matt Murton, aka the Red Baron, is too good a hitter to be playing in the minors. A career .296/.365/.455 batter, Murton plays a solid left field and can stand around in right field if your manager team's manager doesn't care about having a strong throwing arm out there too much. Unfortunately for Murton, he's become something of a niche player:
- He doesn't hit well enough to star, but if he's your team's second best outfielder you are probably doing OK
- He hits for average and power, and can get on base, but isn't great at any of those things
- He doesn't add an extra skill to elevate him above other outfielders, like steal lots of bases, make contact at an extremely high rate, throw like Clemente, or defend his position like Larry Walker
- A righty batter, he hits lefties (.326/.399/.510) like he's Derrek Lee but faces the normal-handed like he's, well, Derrek Lee's crappy first half of 2007
The Cubs are simply not that team. They are more than set at the outfield corners, with two highly paid stars in Soriano and Fukudome providing plus offense and defense for the foreseeable future. The untested outfielder is Felix Pie in center; he's young, very talented, and will need a right-handed platoon player to spot him every now and then against tough lefties. The newest Cub, Reed Johnson, is exactly that. Not only is Murton incapable of playing center field, he is - ironically enough - to good to be the short half of a platoon anyways.
I believe that it is in the Cubs' best interest to trade Murton now. First of all, allowing him to start elsewhere is the kind of classy move that will be appreciated by players around the league. Second, Murton is still young (26) and under control for a couple of years, meaning he could get back more in value now than he is likely to after spending some or all of this season in Iowa. Third, there are several teams despairing over their corner outfield situation as the beginning of the regular season looms. This means that the next few days are the perfect time to strike.
The Cubs, however, are pretty set at the major league level. There aren't really any positions that need to be filled, even on the bench, and the bullpen and starting rotation have pretty decent depth at the major and minor league levels. The minor league system is, however, weaker than it has traditionally been in the past and could use an infusion of young talent. Anyone with upside will do, although I believe that the Cubs should acquire a Quad-A type center fielder with plus defensive skills in case Pie completely fails or becomes injured.
Here are some prospective trade partners:
Seattle could use an OBP injection in their lineup, and they are not completely set in the outfield. Their only right-handed outfielder is non-entity (but good guy) Charleton Jimerson, and the team will be relying on the consistently injured Brad Wilkerson to play every day in right field. Left fielder Raul Ibanez can't hit lefties. Murton, who is durable, right handed, and a high OBP guy, would make for a great fit. As a bonus, the Mariners are salivating at the thought of competing against an Angels team that will start the season without its two best starting pitchers and may look to make a splash before the beginning of the season. Jeremy Reed, who has worn out his welcome in Seattle, would make for a decent return, especially if paired with a low-level, highish-upside pitcher.
Tampa is loaded to the gills with prospects, and with Rocco Baldelli out again with a mitochondrial disorder, would like to acquire some solid, ready-now production in an outfield corner. Murton could pair with former Cub Cliff Floyd to offer quality production in the outfield and DH spot on the cheap. Any one of Tampa's fifth through eight best pitching prospect alone would probably be a decent return.
In my opinion, the Mets make for the best trading partners. Moises Alou is out with an injury again, and right now the rest of the outfield consists of superstar CF Carlos Beltran, RF Ryan Church, and three fourth/fifth outfielder types. Murton could start every day in left field until Alou returns, and then spot for both him and the lefty Church for the rest of the year. The Mets are dangerously low on depth anywhere on the roster, and adding Murton would solidify their precarious status as NL pennant favorites. There isn't too much left in their minor league system to get back in return, but a young pitcher like Niese or hitter like Nick Evans would be a solid addition to the minor league system. The Mets are desperate to win after last season, and even after the Lastings Milledge trade, seem to me the most likely to overpay for Murton.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Cubs 2008 Season Preview, Part I
In 2007, the Cubs failed to reach the World Series. As a card-carrying sports blogger, it is now my duty to inform you that, should the Cubs fail to win the Fall Classic this upcoming October, they will have gone an unheard-of 100 years without a championship. Nevertheless, spirits are high in Wrigleyville: the ’07 Cubs, a flawed team for sure, won the NL Central before being swept in the NLDS. This year, the Cubbies have imported from Japan a potentially excellent right fielder, Kosuke Fukudome, who promises to provide four critical components last year’s team lacked: stability in right field, quality defense, substantial on-base abilities, and a middle-of-the-order left-handed bat. The expectations have clearly been raised on the North Side, and should the Cubs deliver with a World Series victory, you will find me amongst the throngs of drunken revelers celebrating in the streets outside of Wrigley Field. It promises to be the greatest party the Lakeshore Liberals will ever experience - until approximately one week later, when Barack Obama wins the Presidential Election. 
Before we pop the champaign and toast Mike Fontenot’s improbable Game 7, Series-winning 14th inning inside-the-park homerun, however, we must take a critical, unbiased look at the team that represents (half of) the good people of Chicago. While one can never find enough things to nitpick about when it comes to the Cubs, I’m going to limit myself to five main questions in the spirit of The Hardball Times’ excellent series in Part I of the season preview and follow that up with a position-by-position breakdown of the team in Part II. By the end of the piece, I hope to have come to some sort of conclusion as to the prospects for the upcoming season.
Question 1: Back Of The Rotation
The first three positions in the Cubs starting rotation haven’t changed from last year: Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Rich Hill will be the Northsiders’ front line. Last year those three combined for 618.3 innings pitched, a very solid total, while each provided an ERA+ between 122 and 118. While Rich Hill is considered young, he will be 28 this season, and figures to provide production similar if not better to last year’s. Zambrano and Lilly each have issues surrounding them, but at the very least, are known as excellent innings-eaters. As of this spring, the last two spots in the rotation were up for grabs. Jason Marquis, who was surprisingly signed to a three-year deal before last season, pitched surprisingly well in the first half of the year, and then pitched exactly as poorly as everyone expected in the last half, angered manager Lou Piniella this spring when he proclaimed that he deserved to have a slot in the rotation. Former Cub (and personal fave) Jon Lieber was brought in after experiencing a couple of injury-marred seasons elsewhere, and was widely considered a lock for the rotation. Imagine Lieber when he was with the Cubs previously: pitching very quickly, spotting his fastball and his devastating slider away to right-handed batters, and trying to bluff his way past left-handers. Now imagine him six years older, twenty pounds heavier, and about fifteen percent worse. He’s a useful player, in that he can eat innings, pound the zone against righties, and provide depth for any rotation in baseball; how the Cubs will choose to use him remains to be seen. Last year’s closer, Ryan Dempster, was also in the starting mix all spring long: although he’s more-or-less succeeded in the closer’s role, Demps has always made it clear that he prefers to start. He was never a great starting pitcher, but who knows? Maybe he’s learned a thing or two, and his multi-year absence from starting makes it difficult to peg how he’ll do. Lastly, a few young pups, Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, and Kevin Hart were theoretically in consideration, but I was never convinced that they were going to make the big league team, partially because of the situation explained in Question 2. (Late update: the Cubs announced that Dempster and Marquis will start the season in the rotation. I take this to team that they failed to trade Marquis, as they were rumored to be doing, and couldn’t stomach sending their $7 million dollar man to pitch in the bullpen.)
Question 2: Whither Brian Roberts?
The Cubs have been rumored to be on the verge of acquiring Baltimore second baseman Brian Roberts since your home had equity. As you can see from this astute post at The Cub Reporter, most Cubs fans have long finished debating whether or not this would be a good move and just want something to happen already. Reports have suggested that the Fightin’ Seans (Marshall and Gallagher), hard-to-get-a-read-on prospect Donald Veal, shortstop Ronny Cedeno, and blue chip centerfielder Felix Pie have all been in the mix as trade chips for the standout leadoff hitter. I will stipulate right out that trading Pie is a bad idea: he’s got serious talent, could break out this year, and is really the Cubs’ only true centerfielder. So what trade would make sense from the perspective of the Cubs?
Brian Michael Roberts is a 30-year old career second baseman with a composite .281/.351/.409 line in seven major league seasons. A switch-hitter, he batted .290/.377/.432 last year, for a 112 OPS+. His offensive value, however, is not merely at the plate: one of the best base stealers in the game, he has swiped 186 career stolen bases at an impressive 80% rate, and according to Dan Fox of Baseball Prospectus, Roberts was the overall the fourth best baserunner in the game in 2007. (He also rated an impressive +31 bases according to Bill James in 2007.) Defensively, Baseball Prospectus rates him about average, while John Dewan shows Roberts being the seventh best defensive two-sacker in the game from 2005-7, although he didn’t place amongst the top ten last year. Perhaps Roberts’ biggest advantage for the Cubs would be his reputation as a leadoff man, which would finally convince Piniella to move Alfonso Soriano further down in the lineup to a position to which he is better suited.
Here are a few 2008 projections for Mr. Roberts:
It appears as though Roberts is a very easy player to predict: every single projection foresees a batting average in the .280s, an OBP in the .360s, and a slugging percentage between .414 and .439. In fact, I’d bet that there aren’t ten players in baseball that all these projection systems agree on as much as Brian Roberts. Maybe not even five. Even taking into account the fact that his statistics would change somewhat moving from Baltimore to Chicago, given the different leagues and ballparks, it is simple to predict what kind of production the Cubs will get if they pull off this trade.
In comparison, last year Cubs second basemen hit .286/.353/.413, or almost exactly what Brian Roberts is expected to hit next year. Mark DeRosa, the primary Cubs second baseman in 2007, hit .293/.371/.420. Other Cubs players, such as Mike Fontenot, Ryan Theriot, Ronny Cedeno, and Eric Patterson are all expected to be in the mix for playing time at the keystone this year. If the Cubs do not trade for Roberts, it is highly likely that the Cubs will mix-and-match those players in the middle infield much the same as last year. This latter strategy may not be pretty, but it can be effective, as one of Lou Piniella’s greatest strengths as a manager is his willingness to occasionally platoon but always ride the hot hand without regard to salary or veteran status - so long as the starter losing playing time isn’t a star, as would be the situation here.
In my estimation, the Cubs will never trade Felix Pie for Roberts. Therefore, it is likely that the outgoing players will include Ronny Cedeno, Donald Veal, Kevin Hart, and one or both of the Fightin’s Seans. Cedeno has yet to hit in the majors, but he has his backers (Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus’s prospect hound, personally vouched for him at a gathering last September). Veal is a big, strong power lefty with little command but a world of potential. The Sean’s have the potential to be number three or number four starting pitchers in the majors, starting this year (Marshall had a 119 ERA+ in over 103 innings last year in the bigs), and Kevin Hart is a small-upside, minor prospect who can slot into a rotation or bullpen easily enough.
As I see it, the pros and cons of the trade are: as follows
PROS:
- Roberts is a true leadoff man, who can get on base and then steal them
- Roberts will finally force Soriano into a more sensible lineup spot
- Roberts will take over second base full-time, making DeRosa a true, valuable utility man, and strengthening the back of the bench
- Roberts will probably be worth 1.5-2 wins more than a platoon arrangement
CONS:
- Roberts is expensive, worth $14.3 million over the next two years, and on the wrong side of 30
- The Cubs have a glut of players who can play second base, and acquiring Roberts will mean losing many valuable trade chits as well as depth in case the Cubs want to upgrade anywhere else
- Cedeno is the Cubs’ only good defensive shortstop – everyone else is average at best, a long-term liability at worst, and he will HAVE to be included in the trade because the Oriole’s have absolutely nobody at that position currently
- While Veal, a high-upside, high-risk prospect, is exactly the kind that should get traded in these kinds of scenarios, the Marshalls provide stellar depth for the rotation as well as cheap, productive pitchers over the next few seasons. Losing them means the rotation fallbacks will be 38-year old Jon Lieber and, uh…
Overall, I believe the negatives of this deal outweigh the positives. The Cubs will be unable to field the ball at short if Cedeno leaves, and incapable of fielding quality replacement pitchers should any starter get hurt or Jason Marquis stink again – both highly likely. The value that Cedeno, who I believe may be ready to have his first good season, and Marshall could add to this team given adequate playing time might easily balance out the extra wins Roberts would be worth. If the Cubs could swing a deal that sent Veal, Hart, Gallagher, and (say) Eric Patterson, I would be all for it. But anything more would too damaging to the kind of depth a major league team needs to compete over a long season.
(Late update: The Cubs just signed inexplicably waved Blue Jays outfielder Reed Johnson. Johnson is a 31-year old marginal defensive centerfielder who bats from the right side and has hit portsiders at a .308/.371/.462 clip in his career. He makes an excellent platoon mate for Felix Pie in center, in that he should be able to play the position every now and then without killing the defense and spot in against tough lefties. He’s really perfect because he isn’t good enough to take too much playing time away from the young Pie. This makes Matt Murton, a solid corner outfielder who could start for a good team with worse outfielders than the Cubs have, highly tradable. If I were Jim Hendry, I’d be offering Murton, Veal, and Marshall or Gallagher for Brian Roberts right now.)
Question 3: First Samantha, then the Cubs? Will any Power be associated with a 2008 campaign from Illinois?
OK, enough with the bad political jokes, and onto the hardcore analysis. Over the last three years, the Cubs hit 194, 166, and 151 homeruns, a disturbing downward trend to say the least. Their high-priced offense was a mere eleventh in the league in this category last year – despite the fact that Wrigley Field may be the fifth easiest park to hit homers in. Much of the power outage was blamed on first baseman Derrek Lee, who slugged an anemic .479 in the first half with six homeruns but picked it up in the second half with a .554 slugging average and 16 homers. Lee got something of a mulligan last year – he was recovering from a hand injury that tends to sap power – but nobody expects him to return to the halcyon days of 2005, when he was the single best hitter in baseball. In fact, all of the projection systems foresee him hitting between 21 and 25 longballs. I would expect more than that – he’s 32, but is very athletic with the kind of body that ages well, and none of these systems know that he was recovering from an injury that specifically hampers power – but Lee is clearly no longer one of baseball’s offensive elite.
The other position likely to see a significant increase in power production is catcher. This isn’t necessarily because the Cubs have a great new catcher all lined up – although they do – but rather because last year the team’s catchers hit an otherworldly .239/.304/.369, or approximately five walks and a couple of doubles better than pitcher Carlos Zambrano’s batting rate statistics. The 2008 version of the Cubs, however, will enjoy employing Geovany Soto behind the plate. Soto hit like Alex Rodriguez in AAA last year, and when he was called up to the majors, clobbered about 20% of the total homers hit by Cubs catchers all season long in only 60 plate appearances. Granted, he won’t slug .667 this year, but the various projection systems peg him at somewhere between .464 and .483 for the upcoming campaign, with somewhere between 17-20 homers.
The Cubs may also see marginal gains at other positions – if Cedeno has a big year, he could pop a few at shortstop, and the Cubs are likely to get more than 23 homers from centerfield and rightfield combined this year from Pie and Fukudome, respectively. Last year, the lack of power killed the Cubs offense in the first half as the team didn’t get on base enough to generate runs any other way; next year I expect the Cubs will hit between 170 and 180 homers, once again placing them in the top half of the NL in homeruns.
Question 4: How To Serve Youth
The Cubs will likely be entrusting three of the four up-the-middle positions to youngish players still trying to establish themselves in the major leagues: Geovany Soto, 25, at catcher; Ronny Cedeno, 25, at shortstop; and Felix Pie, 23, at centerfield. Many teams would balk at entrusting so much responsibility to young players (see: Cubs, Chicago, 2003-2006, or Reds, Cincinnati, 2007 – or any other team Dusty Baker happens to be managing). For the Cubs, whose backup options look better than they really are, it is especially important that they allow this small but important youth movement to flourish.
Prospect mavens can probably worry least about Soto. He made a strong impression on the team last year, has little competition from any other catcher on the team or in the minors, and provides defensive chops good enough to keep him in the lineup even if he slumps at the plate. Strong-armed and oft-injured Henry Blanco backs him up, but is unlikely to usurp his role as starter: not only can Blanco not hit, but the elder player has actually gone out of his way to mentor the young padawan starting behind the plate for the Cubbies.
Pie’s situation is a little less stable. Although Piniella says he will start him at center, and the lefty’s spring has been golden, Pie has so far hit everywhere he’s been – except at the major league level. Another knock against Pie is his similarity to the last big Cubs centerfield prospect, Corey Patterson, whose mishandling by the team gives Bleacher Bums night sweats to this day. Luckily, there are also strong reasons to be hopeful for Pie’s season, not the least of which is the fact that he is a better prospect (and by all accounts a better student of the game) than Patterson was, and the organization is very keen on not repeating its past mistakes. The Cubs lineup is also solid and will afford him the opportunity to develop without much pressure at the bottom of the lineup. Lastly, other than Pie, only semi-prospect Sam Fuld can play a good center on this team, meaning Fukudome or newly acquired Reed Johnson probably won’t be expected to handle the position on a full-time basis.
Ronny Cedeno, the shortstop, is the least likely to stay in the starting lineup. For one thing, he really hasn’t hit at the major league level; unlike Pie, he has neither the benefit of being a highly regarded prospect nor age 23. In addition, the Cubs have that most beloved of baseball player, a gritty but marginally useful white guy with an entertaining name, ready to take over at shortstop should Cedeno fail again to produce at the plate. Unfortunately, Ryan Theriot isn’t really young, can’t really hit, and barely achieves adequacy in the field. Cedeno has the opportunity to out-hit, out-field, and outrun Theriot if he lives up his abilities (Baseball Prospectus thinks he can become Orlando Cabrera), but it is anyone’s guess as to whether he’ll be able to do it.
Question 5: Bullpen Utilization
Sweet Lou recently announced that Kerry Wood, the pitcher formerly known as Kid K, will be closer this season. Of course, I could now work myself into a lather about how closers are overvalued, the concept of closing is a highly flawed one, and why Tony La Russa will go to hell, but we only have so much space. Instead, let me try and examine what this means for the bullpen.
Nobody really knows if Wood can go back-to-back days – he barely has this spring, and even he never knows when his trick body will go “pop.” However, he has pitched lights-out thing spring, touching 98 on the gun and (far more importantly) not walking a single batter. If being used in a closer’s spot, i.e. entering the game in the bottom of the last inning, with nobody on base, and three outs to get - are what allows Kerry to focus best and pitch what he can without breaking down, then I’m actually all for him being used in the closer’s role. Closing is an idiotic concept, but its strange constraints and usage dictates may actually be perfect for Wood.
Even Lou can’t expect Wood to go out there time and again, so it is a good thing that the Cubs have three other potential shut-down relievers. Bob Howry is a beast out of the pen, spotting his fastball low-and-away from righties and blowing helpless batters away. Michael Wuertz and his hard slider may not do much against lefties (over his career, lefties hit him for about 70 more points of OPS) but the man is death on righthanders. The real prize of the ‘pen, however, is Carlos Marmol. Here’s Marmol’s line from last year:
Granted, nobody wants their pitchers to walk 35 batters in about 70 innings pitched. But. Marmol came out of nowhere and blew away 96 (!) hitters in that time, a downright Papelbonian rate. As a bonus, nobody could get a hit off of him, either. He’s a supremely valuable relief pitcher who has the talent to be one of the game’s elite (and, it should be said, the mechanics to become the next Tommy John surgery victim.)
Piniella managed the early-90s Cincinnati Reds to a World Series victory with their famed Nasty Boys trio of relief pitchers, none of which had a set closer’s role. This bullpen – rounded out by mediocre lefty Scott Eyre, pitching prospect Carmen Pignatiello, or Kevin Hart – won’t be as good as that one. But as long as Lou hasn’t lost his ability to ably manage a talented menagerie of relievers, and doesn’t overly rely on rigid roles, the bullpen should be a strength for the 2008 Cubs.Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Random White Sox Thoughts
1. No matter what happens, Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen will be there to entertain us.
Here are a few choice quotes from these two, all from but one ESPN.com article:
OK, I lied. Those are just Ozzie's quotes. It's not that I don't think Kenny Williams is entertaining in a perpetually aggrieved, peevish, chip-on-his-shoulder, semi-justified manner, but honestly, nothing he says will ever be as entertaining as his feisty manager's average bromide.
Even so, there's something to be said for a general manager of a major league team who is so willing to constantly and unwaveringly complain to the press about everything from his reputation, to Baseball Prospectus's White Sox predictions, to his own internal distress over his admitted errors. In fact, it may be that Williams' most entertaining feature is his monumental certainty of his place in the world: he admits it when he screws up, boasts about his successes, and boldly endorses his commonly crackpot schemes even in the face of almost universal criticism. I don't think there's another major professional team in the United States with one official so publicly anti-P.C., let alone two, and it is something I think it's about time we commended the Sox for.
2. This team is like Frankenstein's Monster in that it seems like it consists entirely of parts belonging to other, more sensibly constructed teams. Nick Swisher, who is one of their only OBP sources, signed his very sensible deal through 2012 when he was with the A's. Jim Thome, the other OBP source, signed his deal when he was supposed to be the long-term first baseman for the Phillies. Many other players - like Dye, Vazquez, Pierzynski, and Cabrera, - were drafted and graduated by other teams and are now at the tail end of the peak portion of their careers. Then there's the one good young player drafted by the Sox, Fields, who feels so out of place amongst this collection of oldish imports that he's almost like the body part Doc. Frankenstein couldn't locate in the cemetery and had to cut off a living person. I don't know if all this necessarily adds up to a meaningful point, but I just can't shake this comparison for some reason.
3. The White Sox are probably going to miss the playoffs this year. Then what? This team isn't built for the long haul - most of its best players are just going to get worse or become free agents. Its young players are, at best, league average. But it does have long-term guys like Fields and Swisher and Buehrle who can contribute down the line, making it difficult to envision a future in which the team becomes the worst in baseball and must engineer a complete retooling (see: Astros, Houston). Even the farm system, while heavily depleted, has a couple of guys along the lines of Aaron Poreda who could be quite good in a few years, unlike some other teams I could mention (see: Astros, Houston). The Sox are going to be in a very weird, uncomfortable place come Winter '09, with no clear path for how to proceed.
Here are a few choice quotes from these two, all from but one ESPN.com article:
We win the World Series and Kenny makes three key moves to winning, and the guy in Cleveland [Shapiro] wins the Baseball America Executive of the Year. That's a bunch of s---.
- Ozzie
Ninety-nine percent of the people weren't behind us. Hey man, this game is a bunch of front-runners. If you're good, they kiss your butt. If not, you're horse s---.
- Ozzie, on last year's team
We made a big mistake when we won in 2005. We never took credit. Me and Kenny, we just did our jobs and never went out of our way to rub it in people's faces that we were the champions. If we win it again, I'll be a cocky, arrogant, SOB. I'll be wearing my World Series rings hitting fungoes in the field.
- Ozzie
OK, I lied. Those are just Ozzie's quotes. It's not that I don't think Kenny Williams is entertaining in a perpetually aggrieved, peevish, chip-on-his-shoulder, semi-justified manner, but honestly, nothing he says will ever be as entertaining as his feisty manager's average bromide.
Even so, there's something to be said for a general manager of a major league team who is so willing to constantly and unwaveringly complain to the press about everything from his reputation, to Baseball Prospectus's White Sox predictions, to his own internal distress over his admitted errors. In fact, it may be that Williams' most entertaining feature is his monumental certainty of his place in the world: he admits it when he screws up, boasts about his successes, and boldly endorses his commonly crackpot schemes even in the face of almost universal criticism. I don't think there's another major professional team in the United States with one official so publicly anti-P.C., let alone two, and it is something I think it's about time we commended the Sox for.
2. This team is like Frankenstein's Monster in that it seems like it consists entirely of parts belonging to other, more sensibly constructed teams. Nick Swisher, who is one of their only OBP sources, signed his very sensible deal through 2012 when he was with the A's. Jim Thome, the other OBP source, signed his deal when he was supposed to be the long-term first baseman for the Phillies. Many other players - like Dye, Vazquez, Pierzynski, and Cabrera, - were drafted and graduated by other teams and are now at the tail end of the peak portion of their careers. Then there's the one good young player drafted by the Sox, Fields, who feels so out of place amongst this collection of oldish imports that he's almost like the body part Doc. Frankenstein couldn't locate in the cemetery and had to cut off a living person. I don't know if all this necessarily adds up to a meaningful point, but I just can't shake this comparison for some reason.
3. The White Sox are probably going to miss the playoffs this year. Then what? This team isn't built for the long haul - most of its best players are just going to get worse or become free agents. Its young players are, at best, league average. But it does have long-term guys like Fields and Swisher and Buehrle who can contribute down the line, making it difficult to envision a future in which the team becomes the worst in baseball and must engineer a complete retooling (see: Astros, Houston). Even the farm system, while heavily depleted, has a couple of guys along the lines of Aaron Poreda who could be quite good in a few years, unlike some other teams I could mention (see: Astros, Houston). The Sox are going to be in a very weird, uncomfortable place come Winter '09, with no clear path for how to proceed.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
On Suffering
Although TTMD's first post suggests that the only thing the White Sox and the Cubs hold in common is the distance between their respective stadiums, the truth is that of course other similarities exist. Two baseball franchises with such storied histories, sharing a single city, will naturally engender comparisons and contrasts to each other. For example, although the Red Sox used to get the press, the truth is that until 2005 the White Sox were the American sports team suffering through the second-longest championship drought ever. The longest, naturally, belonged (and belongs) to the Cubs.
Which brings me, like all Chicago sports fans, Greek playwrights, and nihilists, to the subject of suffering. There is simply no way to begin a discussion (or blog) about these two teams without acknowledging this elephant in the room. With rare exceptions, like fans of soccer teams whose stadiums collapse, there is no equivalent for the misery and cruelty heaped upon Chicago baseball enthusiasts. In 2005 the White Sox went 11-1 in the postseason, taking the playoffs by storm and winning the World Series in a decisive sweep over the National League Champion Astros. The last time the White Sox reached the Fall Classic, my father attended one of the home games. The year was 1959, it was his very first major league game, he was about to turn ten, and the Sox lost. In 2003, the Cubs came within six outs of the World Series before a series of defensive miscues and the most infamous moment of fan interference in baseball history (or, at least, since the crowd stormed the field in the Merkle's Boner game) cost them the pennant. In 1998, they were swept in the first round of the playoffs. In 1989, they lost to the Giants in the playoffs, and in 1984, when the Cubs needed to win one of three games to take the pennant, they were defeated in part due to a famous defensive error. The last time they went to the playoffs before that? 1945. (They lost.)
Last year, the Cubs were swept in the first round of the playoffs by a team that was outscored over the course of the season. That kind of added ignominy is the sort of thing that Chicago sports fans almost take for granted at this point; how can we complain that the mediocre team lost in the playoffs last year when even our best teams are regularly trounced in the postseason? It may not be scientific, but one way to know that your favorite team has a winning problem is when its Wikipedia entry, as does the White Sox', includes the subsection, "1922-50: The Lean Years."
So why does it hurt me so much to read a story about one-time Cub wunderkid Mark Prior restarting his career in San Diego?
I think that, ultimately, the source of my pain is that rarest of attributes in the Second City: naivety. When Mark Prior, the greatest college pitcher since Roger Clemens, owner of supposedly perfect pitching mechanics, and man-eating scourge of batters everywhere dropped unexpectedly to the Cubs in the 2001 draft, the possibilities seemed endless. Prior was immediately dubbed, "The Franchise," and all the hopes and dreams of millions of Cubs fans were placed on his right arm. One of my favorite baseball writers, injury expert Will Carroll, even went to great lengths in his first book extolling Prior's outstanding mechanics. I attended his very first major league game ever, a 6-inning victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was the guy I was going to tell my kids about seeing, the prophet sent by the baseball gods to lead the Cubs to World Series glory with lightning bolt fastballs and earthquaking curves. He could even hit a little.
Instead, naturally, inevitably, the Cubs badly overworked his arm, he suffered through year after year of injuries, and left at the end of last season to resurrect his career in his home town of San Diego.
Rationally, of course, these things happen (see: Wood, Kerry), and Prior is no more likely to rejoin his Hall of Fame career trajectory than I am. But it still breaks my heart to think of Prior becoming even a league-average pitcher anywhere but Chicago. He was miraculously available with the second pick of the draft, he was destined to become savior, he was ours.
In case you are wondering who the first pick of the 2001 draft was, the guy the Minnesota Twins picked only because they did not believe they could afford to sign Prior - his name is Joe Mauer. If you are so inclined, you may visit him every summer at the All-Star game, where he will be starting at catcher for the American League.
Like I said, suffering.
Which brings me, like all Chicago sports fans, Greek playwrights, and nihilists, to the subject of suffering. There is simply no way to begin a discussion (or blog) about these two teams without acknowledging this elephant in the room. With rare exceptions, like fans of soccer teams whose stadiums collapse, there is no equivalent for the misery and cruelty heaped upon Chicago baseball enthusiasts. In 2005 the White Sox went 11-1 in the postseason, taking the playoffs by storm and winning the World Series in a decisive sweep over the National League Champion Astros. The last time the White Sox reached the Fall Classic, my father attended one of the home games. The year was 1959, it was his very first major league game, he was about to turn ten, and the Sox lost. In 2003, the Cubs came within six outs of the World Series before a series of defensive miscues and the most infamous moment of fan interference in baseball history (or, at least, since the crowd stormed the field in the Merkle's Boner game) cost them the pennant. In 1998, they were swept in the first round of the playoffs. In 1989, they lost to the Giants in the playoffs, and in 1984, when the Cubs needed to win one of three games to take the pennant, they were defeated in part due to a famous defensive error. The last time they went to the playoffs before that? 1945. (They lost.)
Last year, the Cubs were swept in the first round of the playoffs by a team that was outscored over the course of the season. That kind of added ignominy is the sort of thing that Chicago sports fans almost take for granted at this point; how can we complain that the mediocre team lost in the playoffs last year when even our best teams are regularly trounced in the postseason? It may not be scientific, but one way to know that your favorite team has a winning problem is when its Wikipedia entry, as does the White Sox', includes the subsection, "1922-50: The Lean Years."
So why does it hurt me so much to read a story about one-time Cub wunderkid Mark Prior restarting his career in San Diego?
I think that, ultimately, the source of my pain is that rarest of attributes in the Second City: naivety. When Mark Prior, the greatest college pitcher since Roger Clemens, owner of supposedly perfect pitching mechanics, and man-eating scourge of batters everywhere dropped unexpectedly to the Cubs in the 2001 draft, the possibilities seemed endless. Prior was immediately dubbed, "The Franchise," and all the hopes and dreams of millions of Cubs fans were placed on his right arm. One of my favorite baseball writers, injury expert Will Carroll, even went to great lengths in his first book extolling Prior's outstanding mechanics. I attended his very first major league game ever, a 6-inning victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was the guy I was going to tell my kids about seeing, the prophet sent by the baseball gods to lead the Cubs to World Series glory with lightning bolt fastballs and earthquaking curves. He could even hit a little.
Instead, naturally, inevitably, the Cubs badly overworked his arm, he suffered through year after year of injuries, and left at the end of last season to resurrect his career in his home town of San Diego.
Rationally, of course, these things happen (see: Wood, Kerry), and Prior is no more likely to rejoin his Hall of Fame career trajectory than I am. But it still breaks my heart to think of Prior becoming even a league-average pitcher anywhere but Chicago. He was miraculously available with the second pick of the draft, he was destined to become savior, he was ours.
In case you are wondering who the first pick of the 2001 draft was, the guy the Minnesota Twins picked only because they did not believe they could afford to sign Prior - his name is Joe Mauer. If you are so inclined, you may visit him every summer at the All-Star game, where he will be starting at catcher for the American League.
Like I said, suffering.
The Ten Mile Divide
At 1060 W. Addison, in Chicago, Illinois, sits a landmark stadium. Wrigley Field, home of the Chicago Cubs since 1916 and professional baseball since 1914, is widely considered one of the greatest sports stadiums in the United States. Its legendary ivy-covered outfield wall and tomato-red marquee have witnessed the comings and goings of dozens of Cubs teams and generations of fans. Though the teams have often lacked talent, and the fans bragging rights, today the Cubs and Wrigley Field boast unprecedented levels of popularity and attention. The building at the corner of Clark and Addison is rightly considered a crown jewel of Chicago's North Side.
A mere ten miles due south, in the heart of the South Side's Bridgeport neighborhood, lies U.S. Cellular field. The home ballpark of the Chicago White Sox, opened in 1991 as the new Comiskey Park, has endured withering criticism over its looks, seating, and sterile atmosphere. Though the teams populating its environs hardly bettered the on-field records of their popular neighbor to the north, U.S. Cellular field has managed to improve its reputation through significant renovations, the adoration of its loyal, working class customers, and a recent renaissance following the team's World Series-winning 2005 season. These two teams have plied their trade in Chicago for over a hundred years each, yet their defining characteristics - lovable losers versus hardscrabble winners, big-money versus medium-money, Bleacher Bums versus chip on their shoulders - have diverged wildly and in unpredictable ways.
Somehow, just about the only thing these two franchises have in common is that between them lies a ten mile divide.
A mere ten miles due south, in the heart of the South Side's Bridgeport neighborhood, lies U.S. Cellular field. The home ballpark of the Chicago White Sox, opened in 1991 as the new Comiskey Park, has endured withering criticism over its looks, seating, and sterile atmosphere. Though the teams populating its environs hardly bettered the on-field records of their popular neighbor to the north, U.S. Cellular field has managed to improve its reputation through significant renovations, the adoration of its loyal, working class customers, and a recent renaissance following the team's World Series-winning 2005 season. These two teams have plied their trade in Chicago for over a hundred years each, yet their defining characteristics - lovable losers versus hardscrabble winners, big-money versus medium-money, Bleacher Bums versus chip on their shoulders - have diverged wildly and in unpredictable ways.
Somehow, just about the only thing these two franchises have in common is that between them lies a ten mile divide.
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