Some Thoughts on The U.S. Season Opener

I've been watching the Nationals host the Braves in the U.S. season opener, and noticed a few interesting things along the way:

1. The outfield looks large pretty large, including deep, triangular left-center field that resembles a sort of mini version of the Bermuda Triangle in Florida. Those sort of extreme ballpark quirks really annoy me, as they make me feel like the architects are trying too hard to make the field "individual" or "unique." However, the park appears to be really quite beautiful and the announcers have been saying that you can see various D.C. landmarks from different points in the stadium, which is awesome.

2. The weather in D.C is obviously highly variable over the course of the season, and the cool weather they are experiencing tonight won't last throughout the summer. That said, it appears that balls hit hard and deep to right field, on a line, carry extremely well. The Braves hit a couple of lasers in that direction and both times the ball stayed up in the air for what felt like forever.

3. Peter Moylan has a really entertaining submariner-slider.

4. I haven't had a chance to watch the Nationals too often, but I find it hard to believe this offense will score a lot of runs. Young, Zimmerman, Johnson, and Kearns form a solid core, and Dukes and Milledge have promise. But the Braves got 24 straight batters out at one point, and the Nationals' plate appearances were terrible. This team looked like someone told them they'd be executed if they took a walk. Maybe swinging early was their game plan against Hudson, but why they'd want to just hack at every pitch a sinkerballer throws is beyond me.

5. Zimmerman won it with a walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth, a pretty spectacular finish for the first game in Nationals Park history. Now I have yet another reason to list Zimmerman as one of my favorite players.

6. Nats closer Chad Cordero was warming up with the lead during the bottom of the eighth, but Jon Rauch came in to close instead. I'm pretty sure I could here a million fantasy baseball team owners groan in unison when the top of the ninth began, sort of like how Obi Wan Kenobe could feel the disturbance in the force. Cordero was apparently stiff warming up, and lo and behold - Rauch blew the save.

7. Odalis Perez isn't a very good starting pitcher, but despite everyone snarking out over his being a horrid opening day pitcher, he turned in a good performance. You can see why he's been able to stick around so long - he throws hardish, with decent movement, for a lefty. He is also high effort (five innings tonight) and will probably never have great command.

Que Pasa, Matt Murton?

We take a break from our regularly scheduled Cubs Season Preview to bring you this breaking announcement:

Ronny Cedeno and Mike Fontenot will make the Cubs' final 25, and with the addition of Reed Johnson, Murton appears to be headed to Triple-A Iowa. Cubs general manager Jim Hendry has been trying to work a deal to find someplace for the right-handed-hitting outfielder to play.

"I like Murton," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said Thursday. "I mentioned [Wednesday] that if things don't work out here, I hope he gets a chance at a big league job. I think Jim feels the same way. I think Murton has options."

It's more or less a maxim in baseball that if, on the very day that he makes you the last batter cut in spring training, the manager of your team tells the media that he thinks you should be playing in the big leagues, and that he hopes you get that opportunity, you should start packing your bags and reading up on the housing markets in Seattle or Cleveland or something.

Matt Murton, aka the Red Baron, is too good a hitter to be playing in the minors. A career .296/.365/.455 batter, Murton plays a solid left field and can stand around in right field if your manager team's manager doesn't care about having a strong throwing arm out there too much. Unfortunately for Murton, he's become something of a niche player:

• He doesn't hit well enough to star, but if he's your team's second best outfielder you are probably doing OK
• He hits for average and power, and can get on base, but isn't great at any of those things
• He doesn't add an extra skill to elevate him above other outfielders, like steal lots of bases, make contact at an extremely high rate, throw like Clemente, or defend his position like Larry Walker
• A righty batter, he hits lefties (.326/.399/.510) like he's Derrek Lee but faces the normal-handed like he's, well, Derrek Lee's crappy first half of 2007

Essentially, Murton is a valuable player on a team that needs a young, improving lefty-mashing left fielder who can also start a few dozen times against righties without killing you. If your team's lineup is especially lefty-heavy, or just flat out great, and you can support a starting outfielder who won't crush right handed pitching, then the Baron is a perfect fit.

The Cubs are simply not that team. They are more than set at the outfield corners, with two highly paid stars in Soriano and Fukudome providing plus offense and defense for the foreseeable future. The untested outfielder is Felix Pie in center; he's young, very talented, and will need a right-handed platoon player to spot him every now and then against tough lefties. The newest Cub, Reed Johnson, is exactly that. Not only is Murton incapable of playing center field, he is - ironically enough - to good to be the short half of a platoon anyways.

I believe that it is in the Cubs' best interest to trade Murton now. First of all, allowing him to start elsewhere is the kind of classy move that will be appreciated by players around the league. Second, Murton is still young (26) and under control for a couple of years, meaning he could get back more in value now than he is likely to after spending some or all of this season in Iowa. Third, there are several teams despairing over their corner outfield situation as the beginning of the regular season looms. This means that the next few days are the perfect time to strike.

The Cubs, however, are pretty set at the major league level. There aren't really any positions that need to be filled, even on the bench, and the bullpen and starting rotation have pretty decent depth at the major and minor league levels. The minor league system is, however, weaker than it has traditionally been in the past and could use an infusion of young talent. Anyone with upside will do, although I believe that the Cubs should acquire a Quad-A type center fielder with plus defensive skills in case Pie completely fails or becomes injured.

Here are some prospective trade partners:

Seattle could use an OBP injection in their lineup, and they are not completely set in the outfield. Their only right-handed outfielder is non-entity (but good guy) Charleton Jimerson, and the team will be relying on the consistently injured Brad Wilkerson to play every day in right field. Left fielder Raul Ibanez can't hit lefties. Murton, who is durable, right handed, and a high OBP guy, would make for a great fit. As a bonus, the Mariners are salivating at the thought of competing against an Angels team that will start the season without its two best starting pitchers and may look to make a splash before the beginning of the season. Jeremy Reed, who has worn out his welcome in Seattle, would make for a decent return, especially if paired with a low-level, highish-upside pitcher.

Tampa is loaded to the gills with prospects, and with Rocco Baldelli out again with a mitochondrial disorder, would like to acquire some solid, ready-now production in an outfield corner. Murton could pair with former Cub Cliff Floyd to offer quality production in the outfield and DH spot on the cheap. Any one of Tampa's fifth through eight best pitching prospect alone would probably be a decent return.

In my opinion, the Mets make for the best trading partners. Moises Alou is out with an injury again, and right now the rest of the outfield consists of superstar CF Carlos Beltran, RF Ryan Church, and three fourth/fifth outfielder types. Murton could start every day in left field until Alou returns, and then spot for both him and the lefty Church for the rest of the year. The Mets are dangerously low on depth anywhere on the roster, and adding Murton would solidify their precarious status as NL pennant favorites. There isn't too much left in their minor league system to get back in return, but a young pitcher like Niese or hitter like Nick Evans would be a solid addition to the minor league system. The Mets are desperate to win after last season, and even after the Lastings Milledge trade, seem to me the most likely to overpay for Murton.

Cubs 2008 Season Preview, Part I

In 2007, the Cubs failed to reach the World Series. As a card-carrying sports blogger, it is now my duty to inform you that, should the Cubs fail to win the Fall Classic this upcoming October, they will have gone an unheard-of 100 years without a championship. Nevertheless, spirits are high in Wrigleyville: the ’07 Cubs, a flawed team for sure, won the NL Central before being swept in the NLDS. This year, the Cubbies have imported from Japan a potentially excellent right fielder, Kosuke Fukudome, who promises to provide four critical components last year’s team lacked: stability in right field, quality defense, substantial on-base abilities, and a middle-of-the-order left-handed bat. The expectations have clearly been raised on the North Side, and should the Cubs deliver with a World Series victory, you will find me amongst the throngs of drunken revelers celebrating in the streets outside of Wrigley Field. It promises to be the greatest party the Lakeshore Liberals will ever experience - until approximately one week later, when Barack Obama wins the Presidential Election.

Before we pop the champaign and toast Mike Fontenot’s improbable Game 7, Series-winning 14^th inning inside-the-park homerun, however, we must take a critical, unbiased look at the team that represents (half of) the good people of Chicago. While one can never find enough things to nitpick about when it comes to the Cubs, I’m going to limit myself to five main questions in the spirit of The Hardball Times’ excellent series in Part I of the season preview and follow that up with a position-by-position breakdown of the team in Part II. By the end of the piece, I hope to have come to some sort of conclusion as to the prospects for the upcoming season.

Question 1: Back Of The Rotation

The first three positions in the Cubs starting rotation haven’t changed from last year: Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Rich Hill will be the Northsiders’ front line. Last year those three combined for 618.3 innings pitched, a very solid total, while each provided an ERA+ between 122 and 118. While Rich Hill is considered young, he will be 28 this season, and figures to provide production similar if not better to last year’s. Zambrano and Lilly each have issues surrounding them, but at the very least, are known as excellent innings-eaters. As of this spring, the last two spots in the rotation were up for grabs. Jason Marquis, who was surprisingly signed to a three-year deal before last season, pitched surprisingly well in the first half of the year, and then pitched exactly as poorly as everyone expected in the last half, angered manager Lou Piniella this spring when he proclaimed that he deserved to have a slot in the rotation. Former Cub (and personal fave) Jon Lieber was brought in after experiencing a couple of injury-marred seasons elsewhere, and was widely considered a lock for the rotation. Imagine Lieber when he was with the Cubs previously: pitching very quickly, spotting his fastball and his devastating slider away to right-handed batters, and trying to bluff his way past left-handers. Now imagine him six years older, twenty pounds heavier, and about fifteen percent worse. He’s a useful player, in that he can eat innings, pound the zone against righties, and provide depth for any rotation in baseball; how the Cubs will choose to use him remains to be seen. Last year’s closer, Ryan Dempster, was also in the starting mix all spring long: although he’s more-or-less succeeded in the closer’s role, Demps has always made it clear that he prefers to start. He was never a great starting pitcher, but who knows? Maybe he’s learned a thing or two, and his multi-year absence from starting makes it difficult to peg how he’ll do. Lastly, a few young pups, Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, and Kevin Hart were theoretically in consideration, but I was never convinced that they were going to make the big league team, partially because of the situation explained in Question 2. (Late update: the Cubs announced that Dempster and Marquis will start the season in the rotation. I take this to team that they failed to trade Marquis, as they were rumored to be doing, and couldn’t stomach sending their $7 million dollar man to pitch in the bullpen.)

Question 2: Whither Brian Roberts?

The Cubs have been rumored to be on the verge of acquiring Baltimore second baseman Brian Roberts since your home had equity. As you can see from this astute post at The Cub Reporter, most Cubs fans have long finished debating whether or not this would be a good move and just want something to happen already. Reports have suggested that the Fightin’ Seans (Marshall and Gallagher), hard-to-get-a-read-on prospect Donald Veal, shortstop Ronny Cedeno, and blue chip centerfielder Felix Pie have all been in the mix as trade chips for the standout leadoff hitter. I will stipulate right out that trading Pie is a bad idea: he’s got serious talent, could break out this year, and is really the Cubs’ only true centerfielder. So what trade would make sense from the perspective of the Cubs?

Brian Michael Roberts is a 30-year old career second baseman with a composite .281/.351/.409 line in seven major league seasons. A switch-hitter, he batted .290/.377/.432 last year, for a 112 OPS+. His offensive value, however, is not merely at the plate: one of the best base stealers in the game, he has swiped 186 career stolen bases at an impressive 80% rate, and according to Dan Fox of Baseball Prospectus, Roberts was the overall the fourth best baserunner in the game in 2007. (He also rated an impressive +31 bases according to Bill James in 2007.) Defensively, Baseball Prospectus rates him about average, while John Dewan shows Roberts being the seventh best defensive two-sacker in the game from 2005-7, although he didn’t place amongst the top ten last year. Perhaps Roberts’ biggest advantage for the Cubs would be his reputation as a leadoff man, which would finally convince Piniella to move Alfonso Soriano further down in the lineup to a position to which he is better suited.

Here are a few 2008 projections for Mr. Roberts:

It appears as though Roberts is a very easy player to predict: every single projection foresees a batting average in the .280s, an OBP in the .360s, and a slugging percentage between .414 and .439. In fact, I’d bet that there aren’t ten players in baseball that all these projection systems agree on as much as Brian Roberts. Maybe not even five. Even taking into account the fact that his statistics would change somewhat moving from Baltimore to Chicago, given the different leagues and ballparks, it is simple to predict what kind of production the Cubs will get if they pull off this trade.

In comparison, last year Cubs second basemen hit .286/.353/.413, or almost exactly what Brian Roberts is expected to hit next year. Mark DeRosa, the primary Cubs second baseman in 2007, hit .293/.371/.420. Other Cubs players, such as Mike Fontenot, Ryan Theriot, Ronny Cedeno, and Eric Patterson are all expected to be in the mix for playing time at the keystone this year. If the Cubs do not trade for Roberts, it is highly likely that the Cubs will mix-and-match those players in the middle infield much the same as last year. This latter strategy may not be pretty, but it can be effective, as one of Lou Piniella’s greatest strengths as a manager is his willingness to occasionally platoon but always ride the hot hand without regard to salary or veteran status - so long as the starter losing playing time isn’t a star, as would be the situation here.

In my estimation, the Cubs will never trade Felix Pie for Roberts. Therefore, it is likely that the outgoing players will include Ronny Cedeno, Donald Veal, Kevin Hart, and one or both of the Fightin’s Seans. Cedeno has yet to hit in the majors, but he has his backers (Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus’s prospect hound, personally vouched for him at a gathering last September). Veal is a big, strong power lefty with little command but a world of potential. The Sean’s have the potential to be number three or number four starting pitchers in the majors, starting this year (Marshall had a 119 ERA+ in over 103 innings last year in the bigs), and Kevin Hart is a small-upside, minor prospect who can slot into a rotation or bullpen easily enough.

As I see it, the pros and cons of the trade are: as follows

PROS:

• Roberts is a true leadoff man, who can get on base and then steal them
• Roberts will finally force Soriano into a more sensible lineup spot
• Roberts will take over second base full-time, making DeRosa a true, valuable utility man, and strengthening the back of the bench
• Roberts will probably be worth 1.5-2 wins more than a platoon arrangement

CONS:

• Roberts is expensive, worth $14.3 million over the next two years, and on the wrong side of 30
• The Cubs have a glut of players who can play second base, and acquiring Roberts will mean losing many valuable trade chits as well as depth in case the Cubs want to upgrade anywhere else
• Cedeno is the Cubs’ only good defensive shortstop – everyone else is average at best, a long-term liability at worst, and he will HAVE to be included in the trade because the Oriole’s have absolutely nobody at that position currently
• While Veal, a high-upside, high-risk prospect, is exactly the kind that should get traded in these kinds of scenarios, the Marshalls provide stellar depth for the rotation as well as cheap, productive pitchers over the next few seasons. Losing them means the rotation fallbacks will be 38-year old Jon Lieber and, uh…

Overall, I believe the negatives of this deal outweigh the positives. The Cubs will be unable to field the ball at short if Cedeno leaves, and incapable of fielding quality replacement pitchers should any starter get hurt or Jason Marquis stink again – both highly likely. The value that Cedeno, who I believe may be ready to have his first good season, and Marshall could add to this team given adequate playing time might easily balance out the extra wins Roberts would be worth. If the Cubs could swing a deal that sent Veal, Hart, Gallagher, and (say) Eric Patterson, I would be all for it. But anything more would too damaging to the kind of depth a major league team needs to compete over a long season.

(Late update: The Cubs just signed inexplicably waved Blue Jays outfielder Reed Johnson. Johnson is a 31-year old marginal defensive centerfielder who bats from the right side and has hit portsiders at a .308/.371/.462 clip in his career. He makes an excellent platoon mate for Felix Pie in center, in that he should be able to play the position every now and then without killing the defense and spot in against tough lefties. He’s really perfect because he isn’t good enough to take too much playing time away from the young Pie. This makes Matt Murton, a solid corner outfielder who could start for a good team with worse outfielders than the Cubs have, highly tradable. If I were Jim Hendry, I’d be offering Murton, Veal, and Marshall or Gallagher for Brian Roberts right now.)

Question 3: First Samantha, then the Cubs? Will any Power be associated with a 2008 campaign from Illinois?

OK, enough with the bad political jokes, and onto the hardcore analysis. Over the last three years, the Cubs hit 194, 166, and 151 homeruns, a disturbing downward trend to say the least. Their high-priced offense was a mere eleventh in the league in this category last year – despite the fact that Wrigley Field may be the fifth easiest park to hit homers in. Much of the power outage was blamed on first baseman Derrek Lee, who slugged an anemic .479 in the first half with six homeruns but picked it up in the second half with a .554 slugging average and 16 homers. Lee got something of a mulligan last year – he was recovering from a hand injury that tends to sap power – but nobody expects him to return to the halcyon days of 2005, when he was the single best hitter in baseball. In fact, all of the projection systems foresee him hitting between 21 and 25 longballs. I would expect more than that – he’s 32, but is very athletic with the kind of body that ages well, and none of these systems know that he was recovering from an injury that specifically hampers power – but Lee is clearly no longer one of baseball’s offensive elite.

The other position likely to see a significant increase in power production is catcher. This isn’t necessarily because the Cubs have a great new catcher all lined up – although they do – but rather because last year the team’s catchers hit an otherworldly .239/.304/.369, or approximately five walks and a couple of doubles better than pitcher Carlos Zambrano’s batting rate statistics. The 2008 version of the Cubs, however, will enjoy employing Geovany Soto behind the plate. Soto hit like Alex Rodriguez in AAA last year, and when he was called up to the majors, clobbered about 20% of the total homers hit by Cubs catchers all season long in only 60 plate appearances. Granted, he won’t slug .667 this year, but the various projection systems peg him at somewhere between .464 and .483 for the upcoming campaign, with somewhere between 17-20 homers.

The Cubs may also see marginal gains at other positions – if Cedeno has a big year, he could pop a few at shortstop, and the Cubs are likely to get more than 23 homers from centerfield and rightfield combined this year from Pie and Fukudome, respectively. Last year, the lack of power killed the Cubs offense in the first half as the team didn’t get on base enough to generate runs any other way; next year I expect the Cubs will hit between 170 and 180 homers, once again placing them in the top half of the NL in homeruns.

Question 4: How To Serve Youth

The Cubs will likely be entrusting three of the four up-the-middle positions to youngish players still trying to establish themselves in the major leagues: Geovany Soto, 25, at catcher; Ronny Cedeno, 25, at shortstop; and Felix Pie, 23, at centerfield. Many teams would balk at entrusting so much responsibility to young players (see: Cubs, Chicago, 2003-2006, or Reds, Cincinnati, 2007 – or any other team Dusty Baker happens to be managing). For the Cubs, whose backup options look better than they really are, it is especially important that they allow this small but important youth movement to flourish.

Prospect mavens can probably worry least about Soto. He made a strong impression on the team last year, has little competition from any other catcher on the team or in the minors, and provides defensive chops good enough to keep him in the lineup even if he slumps at the plate. Strong-armed and oft-injured Henry Blanco backs him up, but is unlikely to usurp his role as starter: not only can Blanco not hit, but the elder player has actually gone out of his way to mentor the young padawan starting behind the plate for the Cubbies.

Pie’s situation is a little less stable. Although Piniella says he will start him at center, and the lefty’s spring has been golden, Pie has so far hit everywhere he’s been – except at the major league level. Another knock against Pie is his similarity to the last big Cubs centerfield prospect, Corey Patterson, whose mishandling by the team gives Bleacher Bums night sweats to this day. Luckily, there are also strong reasons to be hopeful for Pie’s season, not the least of which is the fact that he is a better prospect (and by all accounts a better student of the game) than Patterson was, and the organization is very keen on not repeating its past mistakes. The Cubs lineup is also solid and will afford him the opportunity to develop without much pressure at the bottom of the lineup. Lastly, other than Pie, only semi-prospect Sam Fuld can play a good center on this team, meaning Fukudome or newly acquired Reed Johnson probably won’t be expected to handle the position on a full-time basis.

Ronny Cedeno, the shortstop, is the least likely to stay in the starting lineup. For one thing, he really hasn’t hit at the major league level; unlike Pie, he has neither the benefit of being a highly regarded prospect nor age 23. In addition, the Cubs have that most beloved of baseball player, a gritty but marginally useful white guy with an entertaining name, ready to take over at shortstop should Cedeno fail again to produce at the plate. Unfortunately, Ryan Theriot isn’t really young, can’t really hit, and barely achieves adequacy in the field. Cedeno has the opportunity to out-hit, out-field, and outrun Theriot if he lives up his abilities (Baseball Prospectus thinks he can become Orlando Cabrera), but it is anyone’s guess as to whether he’ll be able to do it.

Question 5: Bullpen Utilization

Sweet Lou recently announced that Kerry Wood, the pitcher formerly known as Kid K, will be closer this season. Of course, I could now work myself into a lather about how closers are overvalued, the concept of closing is a highly flawed one, and why Tony La Russa will go to hell, but we only have so much space. Instead, let me try and examine what this means for the bullpen.

Nobody really knows if Wood can go back-to-back days – he barely has this spring, and even he never knows when his trick body will go “pop.” However, he has pitched lights-out thing spring, touching 98 on the gun and (far more importantly) not walking a single batter. If being used in a closer’s spot, i.e. entering the game in the bottom of the last inning, with nobody on base, and three outs to get - are what allows Kerry to focus best and pitch what he can without breaking down, then I’m actually all for him being used in the closer’s role. Closing is an idiotic concept, but its strange constraints and usage dictates may actually be perfect for Wood.

Even Lou can’t expect Wood to go out there time and again, so it is a good thing that the Cubs have three other potential shut-down relievers. Bob Howry is a beast out of the pen, spotting his fastball low-and-away from righties and blowing helpless batters away. Michael Wuertz and his hard slider may not do much against lefties (over his career, lefties hit him for about 70 more points of OPS) but the man is death on righthanders. The real prize of the ‘pen, however, is Carlos Marmol. Here’s Marmol’s line from last year:

Granted, nobody wants their pitchers to walk 35 batters in about 70 innings pitched. But. Marmol came out of nowhere and blew away 96 (!) hitters in that time, a downright Papelbonian rate. As a bonus, nobody could get a hit off of him, either. He’s a supremely valuable relief pitcher who has the talent to be one of the game’s elite (and, it should be said, the mechanics to become the next Tommy John surgery victim.)

Piniella managed the early-90s Cincinnati Reds to a World Series victory with their famed Nasty Boys trio of relief pitchers, none of which had a set closer’s role. This bullpen – rounded out by mediocre lefty Scott Eyre, pitching prospect Carmen Pignatiello, or Kevin Hart – won’t be as good as that one. But as long as Lou hasn’t lost his ability to ably manage a talented menagerie of relievers, and doesn’t overly rely on rigid roles, the bullpen should be a strength for the 2008 Cubs.

Random White Sox Thoughts

1. No matter what happens, Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen will be there to entertain us.

Here are a few choice quotes from these two, all from but one ESPN.com article:

We win the World Series and Kenny makes three key moves to winning, and the guy in Cleveland [Shapiro] wins the Baseball America Executive of the Year. That's a bunch of s---.

- Ozzie

Ninety-nine percent of the people weren't behind us. Hey man, this game is a bunch of front-runners. If you're good, they kiss your butt. If not, you're horse s---.

- Ozzie, on last year's team

We made a big mistake when we won in 2005. We never took credit. Me and Kenny, we just did our jobs and never went out of our way to rub it in people's faces that we were the champions. If we win it again, I'll be a cocky, arrogant, SOB. I'll be wearing my World Series rings hitting fungoes in the field.

- Ozzie

OK, I lied. Those are just Ozzie's quotes. It's not that I don't think Kenny Williams is entertaining in a perpetually aggrieved, peevish, chip-on-his-shoulder, semi-justified manner, but honestly, nothing he says will ever be as entertaining as his feisty manager's average bromide.

Even so, there's something to be said for a general manager of a major league team who is so willing to constantly and unwaveringly complain to the press about everything from his reputation, to Baseball Prospectus's White Sox predictions, to his own internal distress over his admitted errors. In fact, it may be that Williams' most entertaining feature is his monumental certainty of his place in the world: he admits it when he screws up, boasts about his successes, and boldly endorses his commonly crackpot schemes even in the face of almost universal criticism. I don't think there's another major professional team in the United States with one official so publicly anti-P.C., let alone two, and it is something I think it's about time we commended the Sox for.

2. This team is like Frankenstein's Monster in that it seems like it consists entirely of parts belonging to other, more sensibly constructed teams. Nick Swisher, who is one of their only OBP sources, signed his very sensible deal through 2012 when he was with the A's. Jim Thome, the other OBP source, signed his deal when he was supposed to be the long-term first baseman for the Phillies. Many other players - like Dye, Vazquez, Pierzynski, and Cabrera, - were drafted and graduated by other teams and are now at the tail end of the peak portion of their careers. Then there's the one good young player drafted by the Sox, Fields, who feels so out of place amongst this collection of oldish imports that he's almost like the body part Doc. Frankenstein couldn't locate in the cemetery and had to cut off a living person. I don't know if all this necessarily adds up to a meaningful point, but I just can't shake this comparison for some reason.

3. The White Sox are probably going to miss the playoffs this year. Then what? This team isn't built for the long haul - most of its best players are just going to get worse or become free agents. Its young players are, at best, league average. But it does have long-term guys like Fields and Swisher and Buehrle who can contribute down the line, making it difficult to envision a future in which the team becomes the worst in baseball and must engineer a complete retooling (see: Astros, Houston). Even the farm system, while heavily depleted, has a couple of guys along the lines of Aaron Poreda who could be quite good in a few years, unlike some other teams I could mention (see: Astros, Houston). The Sox are going to be in a very weird, uncomfortable place come Winter '09, with no clear path for how to proceed.

On Suffering

Although TTMD's first post suggests that the only thing the White Sox and the Cubs hold in common is the distance between their respective stadiums, the truth is that of course other similarities exist. Two baseball franchises with such storied histories, sharing a single city, will naturally engender comparisons and contrasts to each other. For example, although the Red Sox used to get the press, the truth is that until 2005 the White Sox were the American sports team suffering through the second-longest championship drought ever. The longest, naturally, belonged (and belongs) to the Cubs.

Which brings me, like all Chicago sports fans, Greek playwrights, and nihilists, to the subject of suffering. There is simply no way to begin a discussion (or blog) about these two teams without acknowledging this elephant in the room. With rare exceptions, like fans of soccer teams whose stadiums collapse, there is no equivalent for the misery and cruelty heaped upon Chicago baseball enthusiasts. In 2005 the White Sox went 11-1 in the postseason, taking the playoffs by storm and winning the World Series in a decisive sweep over the National League Champion Astros. The last time the White Sox reached the Fall Classic, my father attended one of the home games. The year was 1959, it was his very first major league game, he was about to turn ten, and the Sox lost. In 2003, the Cubs came within six outs of the World Series before a series of defensive miscues and the most infamous moment of fan interference in baseball history (or, at least, since the crowd stormed the field in the Merkle's Boner game) cost them the pennant. In 1998, they were swept in the first round of the playoffs. In 1989, they lost to the Giants in the playoffs, and in 1984, when the Cubs needed to win one of three games to take the pennant, they were defeated in part due to a famous defensive error. The last time they went to the playoffs before that? 1945. (They lost.)

Last year, the Cubs were swept in the first round of the playoffs by a team that was outscored over the course of the season. That kind of added ignominy is the sort of thing that Chicago sports fans almost take for granted at this point; how can we complain that the mediocre team lost in the playoffs last year when even our best teams are regularly trounced in the postseason? It may not be scientific, but one way to know that your favorite team has a winning problem is when its Wikipedia entry, as does the White Sox', includes the subsection, "1922-50: The Lean Years."

So why does it hurt me so much to read a story about one-time Cub wunderkid Mark Prior restarting his career in San Diego?

I think that, ultimately, the source of my pain is that rarest of attributes in the Second City: naivety. When Mark Prior, the greatest college pitcher since Roger Clemens, owner of supposedly perfect pitching mechanics, and man-eating scourge of batters everywhere dropped unexpectedly to the Cubs in the 2001 draft, the possibilities seemed endless. Prior was immediately dubbed, "The Franchise," and all the hopes and dreams of millions of Cubs fans were placed on his right arm. One of my favorite baseball writers, injury expert Will Carroll, even went to great lengths in his first book extolling Prior's outstanding mechanics. I attended his very first major league game ever, a 6-inning victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was the guy I was going to tell my kids about seeing, the prophet sent by the baseball gods to lead the Cubs to World Series glory with lightning bolt fastballs and earthquaking curves. He could even hit a little.

Instead, naturally, inevitably, the Cubs badly overworked his arm, he suffered through year after year of injuries, and left at the end of last season to resurrect his career in his home town of San Diego.

Rationally, of course, these things happen (see: Wood, Kerry), and Prior is no more likely to rejoin his Hall of Fame career trajectory than I am. But it still breaks my heart to think of Prior becoming even a league-average pitcher anywhere but Chicago. He was miraculously available with the second pick of the draft, he was destined to become savior, he was ours.

In case you are wondering who the first pick of the 2001 draft was, the guy the Minnesota Twins picked only because they did not believe they could afford to sign Prior - his name is Joe Mauer. If you are so inclined, you may visit him every summer at the All-Star game, where he will be starting at catcher for the American League.

Like I said, suffering.

The Ten Mile Divide

At 1060 W. Addison, in Chicago, Illinois, sits a landmark stadium. Wrigley Field, home of the Chicago Cubs since 1916 and professional baseball since 1914, is widely considered one of the greatest sports stadiums in the United States. Its legendary ivy-covered outfield wall and tomato-red marquee have witnessed the comings and goings of dozens of Cubs teams and generations of fans. Though the teams have often lacked talent, and the fans bragging rights, today the Cubs and Wrigley Field boast unprecedented levels of popularity and attention. The building at the corner of Clark and Addison is rightly considered a crown jewel of Chicago's North Side.

A mere ten miles due south, in the heart of the South Side's Bridgeport neighborhood, lies U.S. Cellular field. The home ballpark of the Chicago White Sox, opened in 1991 as the new Comiskey Park, has endured withering criticism over its looks, seating, and sterile atmosphere. Though the teams populating its environs hardly bettered the on-field records of their popular neighbor to the north, U.S. Cellular field has managed to improve its reputation through significant renovations, the adoration of its loyal, working class customers, and a recent renaissance following the team's World Series-winning 2005 season. These two teams have plied their trade in Chicago for over a hundred years each, yet their defining characteristics - lovable losers versus hardscrabble winners, big-money versus medium-money, Bleacher Bums versus chip on their shoulders - have diverged wildly and in unpredictable ways.

Somehow, just about the only thing these two franchises have in common is that between them lies a ten mile divide.