Before we pop the champaign and toast Mike Fontenot’s improbable Game 7, Series-winning 14th inning inside-the-park homerun, however, we must take a critical, unbiased look at the team that represents (half of) the good people of Chicago. While one can never find enough things to nitpick about when it comes to the Cubs, I’m going to limit myself to five main questions in the spirit of The Hardball Times’ excellent series in Part I of the season preview and follow that up with a position-by-position breakdown of the team in Part II. By the end of the piece, I hope to have come to some sort of conclusion as to the prospects for the upcoming season.
Question 1: Back Of The Rotation
The first three positions in the Cubs starting rotation haven’t changed from last year: Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Rich Hill will be the Northsiders’ front line. Last year those three combined for 618.3 innings pitched, a very solid total, while each provided an ERA+ between 122 and 118. While Rich Hill is considered young, he will be 28 this season, and figures to provide production similar if not better to last year’s. Zambrano and Lilly each have issues surrounding them, but at the very least, are known as excellent innings-eaters. As of this spring, the last two spots in the rotation were up for grabs. Jason Marquis, who was surprisingly signed to a three-year deal before last season, pitched surprisingly well in the first half of the year, and then pitched exactly as poorly as everyone expected in the last half, angered manager Lou Piniella this spring when he proclaimed that he deserved to have a slot in the rotation. Former Cub (and personal fave) Jon Lieber was brought in after experiencing a couple of injury-marred seasons elsewhere, and was widely considered a lock for the rotation. Imagine Lieber when he was with the Cubs previously: pitching very quickly, spotting his fastball and his devastating slider away to right-handed batters, and trying to bluff his way past left-handers. Now imagine him six years older, twenty pounds heavier, and about fifteen percent worse. He’s a useful player, in that he can eat innings, pound the zone against righties, and provide depth for any rotation in baseball; how the Cubs will choose to use him remains to be seen. Last year’s closer, Ryan Dempster, was also in the starting mix all spring long: although he’s more-or-less succeeded in the closer’s role, Demps has always made it clear that he prefers to start. He was never a great starting pitcher, but who knows? Maybe he’s learned a thing or two, and his multi-year absence from starting makes it difficult to peg how he’ll do. Lastly, a few young pups, Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, and Kevin Hart were theoretically in consideration, but I was never convinced that they were going to make the big league team, partially because of the situation explained in Question 2. (Late update: the Cubs announced that Dempster and Marquis will start the season in the rotation. I take this to team that they failed to trade Marquis, as they were rumored to be doing, and couldn’t stomach sending their $7 million dollar man to pitch in the bullpen.)
Question 2: Whither Brian Roberts?
The Cubs have been rumored to be on the verge of acquiring Baltimore second baseman Brian Roberts since your home had equity. As you can see from this astute post at The Cub Reporter, most Cubs fans have long finished debating whether or not this would be a good move and just want something to happen already. Reports have suggested that the Fightin’ Seans (Marshall and Gallagher), hard-to-get-a-read-on prospect Donald Veal, shortstop Ronny Cedeno, and blue chip centerfielder Felix Pie have all been in the mix as trade chips for the standout leadoff hitter. I will stipulate right out that trading Pie is a bad idea: he’s got serious talent, could break out this year, and is really the Cubs’ only true centerfielder. So what trade would make sense from the perspective of the Cubs?
Brian Michael Roberts is a 30-year old career second baseman with a composite .281/.351/.409 line in seven major league seasons. A switch-hitter, he batted .290/.377/.432 last year, for a 112 OPS+. His offensive value, however, is not merely at the plate: one of the best base stealers in the game, he has swiped 186 career stolen bases at an impressive 80% rate, and according to Dan Fox of Baseball Prospectus, Roberts was the overall the fourth best baserunner in the game in 2007. (He also rated an impressive +31 bases according to Bill James in 2007.) Defensively, Baseball Prospectus rates him about average, while John Dewan shows Roberts being the seventh best defensive two-sacker in the game from 2005-7, although he didn’t place amongst the top ten last year. Perhaps Roberts’ biggest advantage for the Cubs would be his reputation as a leadoff man, which would finally convince Piniella to move Alfonso Soriano further down in the lineup to a position to which he is better suited.
Here are a few 2008 projections for Mr. Roberts:
It appears as though Roberts is a very easy player to predict: every single projection foresees a batting average in the .280s, an OBP in the .360s, and a slugging percentage between .414 and .439. In fact, I’d bet that there aren’t ten players in baseball that all these projection systems agree on as much as Brian Roberts. Maybe not even five. Even taking into account the fact that his statistics would change somewhat moving from Baltimore to Chicago, given the different leagues and ballparks, it is simple to predict what kind of production the Cubs will get if they pull off this trade.
In comparison, last year Cubs second basemen hit .286/.353/.413, or almost exactly what Brian Roberts is expected to hit next year. Mark DeRosa, the primary Cubs second baseman in 2007, hit .293/.371/.420. Other Cubs players, such as Mike Fontenot, Ryan Theriot, Ronny Cedeno, and Eric Patterson are all expected to be in the mix for playing time at the keystone this year. If the Cubs do not trade for Roberts, it is highly likely that the Cubs will mix-and-match those players in the middle infield much the same as last year. This latter strategy may not be pretty, but it can be effective, as one of Lou Piniella’s greatest strengths as a manager is his willingness to occasionally platoon but always ride the hot hand without regard to salary or veteran status - so long as the starter losing playing time isn’t a star, as would be the situation here.
In my estimation, the Cubs will never trade Felix Pie for Roberts. Therefore, it is likely that the outgoing players will include Ronny Cedeno, Donald Veal, Kevin Hart, and one or both of the Fightin’s Seans. Cedeno has yet to hit in the majors, but he has his backers (Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus’s prospect hound, personally vouched for him at a gathering last September). Veal is a big, strong power lefty with little command but a world of potential. The Sean’s have the potential to be number three or number four starting pitchers in the majors, starting this year (Marshall had a 119 ERA+ in over 103 innings last year in the bigs), and Kevin Hart is a small-upside, minor prospect who can slot into a rotation or bullpen easily enough.
As I see it, the pros and cons of the trade are: as follows
PROS:
- Roberts is a true leadoff man, who can get on base and then steal them
- Roberts will finally force Soriano into a more sensible lineup spot
- Roberts will take over second base full-time, making DeRosa a true, valuable utility man, and strengthening the back of the bench
- Roberts will probably be worth 1.5-2 wins more than a platoon arrangement
CONS:
- Roberts is expensive, worth $14.3 million over the next two years, and on the wrong side of 30
- The Cubs have a glut of players who can play second base, and acquiring Roberts will mean losing many valuable trade chits as well as depth in case the Cubs want to upgrade anywhere else
- Cedeno is the Cubs’ only good defensive shortstop – everyone else is average at best, a long-term liability at worst, and he will HAVE to be included in the trade because the Oriole’s have absolutely nobody at that position currently
- While Veal, a high-upside, high-risk prospect, is exactly the kind that should get traded in these kinds of scenarios, the Marshalls provide stellar depth for the rotation as well as cheap, productive pitchers over the next few seasons. Losing them means the rotation fallbacks will be 38-year old Jon Lieber and, uh…
Overall, I believe the negatives of this deal outweigh the positives. The Cubs will be unable to field the ball at short if Cedeno leaves, and incapable of fielding quality replacement pitchers should any starter get hurt or Jason Marquis stink again – both highly likely. The value that Cedeno, who I believe may be ready to have his first good season, and Marshall could add to this team given adequate playing time might easily balance out the extra wins Roberts would be worth. If the Cubs could swing a deal that sent Veal, Hart, Gallagher, and (say) Eric Patterson, I would be all for it. But anything more would too damaging to the kind of depth a major league team needs to compete over a long season.
(Late update: The Cubs just signed inexplicably waved Blue Jays outfielder Reed Johnson. Johnson is a 31-year old marginal defensive centerfielder who bats from the right side and has hit portsiders at a .308/.371/.462 clip in his career. He makes an excellent platoon mate for Felix Pie in center, in that he should be able to play the position every now and then without killing the defense and spot in against tough lefties. He’s really perfect because he isn’t good enough to take too much playing time away from the young Pie. This makes Matt Murton, a solid corner outfielder who could start for a good team with worse outfielders than the Cubs have, highly tradable. If I were Jim Hendry, I’d be offering Murton, Veal, and Marshall or Gallagher for Brian Roberts right now.)
Question 3: First Samantha, then the Cubs? Will any Power be associated with a 2008 campaign from Illinois?
OK, enough with the bad political jokes, and onto the hardcore analysis. Over the last three years, the Cubs hit 194, 166, and 151 homeruns, a disturbing downward trend to say the least. Their high-priced offense was a mere eleventh in the league in this category last year – despite the fact that Wrigley Field may be the fifth easiest park to hit homers in. Much of the power outage was blamed on first baseman Derrek Lee, who slugged an anemic .479 in the first half with six homeruns but picked it up in the second half with a .554 slugging average and 16 homers. Lee got something of a mulligan last year – he was recovering from a hand injury that tends to sap power – but nobody expects him to return to the halcyon days of 2005, when he was the single best hitter in baseball. In fact, all of the projection systems foresee him hitting between 21 and 25 longballs. I would expect more than that – he’s 32, but is very athletic with the kind of body that ages well, and none of these systems know that he was recovering from an injury that specifically hampers power – but Lee is clearly no longer one of baseball’s offensive elite.
The other position likely to see a significant increase in power production is catcher. This isn’t necessarily because the Cubs have a great new catcher all lined up – although they do – but rather because last year the team’s catchers hit an otherworldly .239/.304/.369, or approximately five walks and a couple of doubles better than pitcher Carlos Zambrano’s batting rate statistics. The 2008 version of the Cubs, however, will enjoy employing Geovany Soto behind the plate. Soto hit like Alex Rodriguez in AAA last year, and when he was called up to the majors, clobbered about 20% of the total homers hit by Cubs catchers all season long in only 60 plate appearances. Granted, he won’t slug .667 this year, but the various projection systems peg him at somewhere between .464 and .483 for the upcoming campaign, with somewhere between 17-20 homers.
The Cubs may also see marginal gains at other positions – if Cedeno has a big year, he could pop a few at shortstop, and the Cubs are likely to get more than 23 homers from centerfield and rightfield combined this year from Pie and Fukudome, respectively. Last year, the lack of power killed the Cubs offense in the first half as the team didn’t get on base enough to generate runs any other way; next year I expect the Cubs will hit between 170 and 180 homers, once again placing them in the top half of the NL in homeruns.
Question 4: How To Serve Youth
The Cubs will likely be entrusting three of the four up-the-middle positions to youngish players still trying to establish themselves in the major leagues: Geovany Soto, 25, at catcher; Ronny Cedeno, 25, at shortstop; and Felix Pie, 23, at centerfield. Many teams would balk at entrusting so much responsibility to young players (see: Cubs, Chicago, 2003-2006, or Reds, Cincinnati, 2007 – or any other team Dusty Baker happens to be managing). For the Cubs, whose backup options look better than they really are, it is especially important that they allow this small but important youth movement to flourish.
Prospect mavens can probably worry least about Soto. He made a strong impression on the team last year, has little competition from any other catcher on the team or in the minors, and provides defensive chops good enough to keep him in the lineup even if he slumps at the plate. Strong-armed and oft-injured Henry Blanco backs him up, but is unlikely to usurp his role as starter: not only can Blanco not hit, but the elder player has actually gone out of his way to mentor the young padawan starting behind the plate for the Cubbies.
Pie’s situation is a little less stable. Although Piniella says he will start him at center, and the lefty’s spring has been golden, Pie has so far hit everywhere he’s been – except at the major league level. Another knock against Pie is his similarity to the last big Cubs centerfield prospect, Corey Patterson, whose mishandling by the team gives Bleacher Bums night sweats to this day. Luckily, there are also strong reasons to be hopeful for Pie’s season, not the least of which is the fact that he is a better prospect (and by all accounts a better student of the game) than Patterson was, and the organization is very keen on not repeating its past mistakes. The Cubs lineup is also solid and will afford him the opportunity to develop without much pressure at the bottom of the lineup. Lastly, other than Pie, only semi-prospect Sam Fuld can play a good center on this team, meaning Fukudome or newly acquired Reed Johnson probably won’t be expected to handle the position on a full-time basis.
Ronny Cedeno, the shortstop, is the least likely to stay in the starting lineup. For one thing, he really hasn’t hit at the major league level; unlike Pie, he has neither the benefit of being a highly regarded prospect nor age 23. In addition, the Cubs have that most beloved of baseball player, a gritty but marginally useful white guy with an entertaining name, ready to take over at shortstop should Cedeno fail again to produce at the plate. Unfortunately, Ryan Theriot isn’t really young, can’t really hit, and barely achieves adequacy in the field. Cedeno has the opportunity to out-hit, out-field, and outrun Theriot if he lives up his abilities (Baseball Prospectus thinks he can become Orlando Cabrera), but it is anyone’s guess as to whether he’ll be able to do it.
Question 5: Bullpen Utilization
Sweet Lou recently announced that Kerry Wood, the pitcher formerly known as Kid K, will be closer this season. Of course, I could now work myself into a lather about how closers are overvalued, the concept of closing is a highly flawed one, and why Tony La Russa will go to hell, but we only have so much space. Instead, let me try and examine what this means for the bullpen.
Nobody really knows if Wood can go back-to-back days – he barely has this spring, and even he never knows when his trick body will go “pop.” However, he has pitched lights-out thing spring, touching 98 on the gun and (far more importantly) not walking a single batter. If being used in a closer’s spot, i.e. entering the game in the bottom of the last inning, with nobody on base, and three outs to get - are what allows Kerry to focus best and pitch what he can without breaking down, then I’m actually all for him being used in the closer’s role. Closing is an idiotic concept, but its strange constraints and usage dictates may actually be perfect for Wood.
Even Lou can’t expect Wood to go out there time and again, so it is a good thing that the Cubs have three other potential shut-down relievers. Bob Howry is a beast out of the pen, spotting his fastball low-and-away from righties and blowing helpless batters away. Michael Wuertz and his hard slider may not do much against lefties (over his career, lefties hit him for about 70 more points of OPS) but the man is death on righthanders. The real prize of the ‘pen, however, is Carlos Marmol. Here’s Marmol’s line from last year:
Granted, nobody wants their pitchers to walk 35 batters in about 70 innings pitched. But. Marmol came out of nowhere and blew away 96 (!) hitters in that time, a downright Papelbonian rate. As a bonus, nobody could get a hit off of him, either. He’s a supremely valuable relief pitcher who has the talent to be one of the game’s elite (and, it should be said, the mechanics to become the next Tommy John surgery victim.)
Piniella managed the early-90s Cincinnati Reds to a World Series victory with their famed Nasty Boys trio of relief pitchers, none of which had a set closer’s role. This bullpen – rounded out by mediocre lefty Scott Eyre, pitching prospect Carmen Pignatiello, or Kevin Hart – won’t be as good as that one. But as long as Lou hasn’t lost his ability to ably manage a talented menagerie of relievers, and doesn’t overly rely on rigid roles, the bullpen should be a strength for the 2008 Cubs.
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