Thursday, March 27, 2008

Que Pasa, Matt Murton?




We take a break from our regularly scheduled Cubs Season Preview to bring you this breaking announcement:

Ronny Cedeno and Mike Fontenot will make the Cubs' final 25, and with the addition of Reed Johnson, Murton appears to be headed to Triple-A Iowa. Cubs general manager Jim Hendry has been trying to work a deal to find someplace for the right-handed-hitting outfielder to play.

"I like Murton," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said Thursday. "I mentioned [Wednesday] that if things don't work out here, I hope he gets a chance at a big league job. I think Jim feels the same way. I think Murton has options."

It's more or less a maxim in baseball that if, on the very day that he makes you the last batter cut in spring training, the manager of your team tells the media that he thinks you should be playing in the big leagues, and that he hopes you get that opportunity, you should start packing your bags and reading up on the housing markets in Seattle or Cleveland or something.

Matt Murton, aka the Red Baron, is too good a hitter to be playing in the minors. A career .296/.365/.455 batter, Murton plays a solid left field and can stand around in right field if your manager team's manager doesn't care about having a strong throwing arm out there too much. Unfortunately for Murton, he's become something of a niche player:

  • He doesn't hit well enough to star, but if he's your team's second best outfielder you are probably doing OK
  • He hits for average and power, and can get on base, but isn't great at any of those things
  • He doesn't add an extra skill to elevate him above other outfielders, like steal lots of bases, make contact at an extremely high rate, throw like Clemente, or defend his position like Larry Walker
  • A righty batter, he hits lefties (.326/.399/.510) like he's Derrek Lee but faces the normal-handed like he's, well, Derrek Lee's crappy first half of 2007
Essentially, Murton is a valuable player on a team that needs a young, improving lefty-mashing left fielder who can also start a few dozen times against righties without killing you. If your team's lineup is especially lefty-heavy, or just flat out great, and you can support a starting outfielder who won't crush right handed pitching, then the Baron is a perfect fit.

The Cubs are simply not that team. They are more than set at the outfield corners, with two highly paid stars in Soriano and Fukudome providing plus offense and defense for the foreseeable future. The untested outfielder is Felix Pie in center; he's young, very talented, and will need a right-handed platoon player to spot him every now and then against tough lefties. The newest Cub, Reed Johnson, is exactly that. Not only is Murton incapable of playing center field, he is - ironically enough - to good to be the short half of a platoon anyways.

I believe that it is in the Cubs' best interest to trade Murton now. First of all, allowing him to start elsewhere is the kind of classy move that will be appreciated by players around the league. Second, Murton is still young (26) and under control for a couple of years, meaning he could get back more in value now than he is likely to after spending some or all of this season in Iowa. Third, there are several teams despairing over their corner outfield situation as the beginning of the regular season looms. This means that the next few days are the perfect time to strike.

The Cubs, however, are pretty set at the major league level. There aren't really any positions that need to be filled, even on the bench, and the bullpen and starting rotation have pretty decent depth at the major and minor league levels. The minor league system is, however, weaker than it has traditionally been in the past and could use an infusion of young talent. Anyone with upside will do, although I believe that the Cubs should acquire a Quad-A type center fielder with plus defensive skills in case Pie completely fails or becomes injured.

Here are some prospective trade partners:

Seattle could use an OBP injection in their lineup, and they are not completely set in the outfield. Their only right-handed outfielder is non-entity (but good guy) Charleton Jimerson, and the team will be relying on the consistently injured Brad Wilkerson to play every day in right field. Left fielder Raul Ibanez can't hit lefties. Murton, who is durable, right handed, and a high OBP guy, would make for a great fit. As a bonus, the Mariners are salivating at the thought of competing against an Angels team that will start the season without its two best starting pitchers and may look to make a splash before the beginning of the season. Jeremy Reed, who has worn out his welcome in Seattle, would make for a decent return, especially if paired with a low-level, highish-upside pitcher.

Tampa is loaded to the gills with prospects, and with Rocco Baldelli out again with a mitochondrial disorder, would like to acquire some solid, ready-now production in an outfield corner. Murton could pair with former Cub Cliff Floyd to offer quality production in the outfield and DH spot on the cheap. Any one of Tampa's fifth through eight best pitching prospect alone would probably be a decent return.

In my opinion, the Mets make for the best trading partners. Moises Alou is out with an injury again, and right now the rest of the outfield consists of superstar CF Carlos Beltran, RF Ryan Church, and three fourth/fifth outfielder types. Murton could start every day in left field until Alou returns, and then spot for both him and the lefty Church for the rest of the year. The Mets are dangerously low on depth anywhere on the roster, and adding Murton would solidify their precarious status as NL pennant favorites. There isn't too much left in their minor league system to get back in return, but a young pitcher like Niese or hitter like Nick Evans would be a solid addition to the minor league system. The Mets are desperate to win after last season, and even after the Lastings Milledge trade, seem to me the most likely to overpay for Murton.

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