And They Have A Plan

I agree with the first part of this post:

On the hitting side, it is the first time I have seen Cubs players walk to the plate and look like they have a plan. Whether Fukudome is wearing off on the other players or not, the fact is that the Cubs are more patient at the plate from the top to the bottom of the order...

The Cubs are a completely different team on offense than I remember them ever being. No matter how good or (usually) terrible the Cubbie offense may be in any given year, the one constant was that the Cubs would never take many walks. Always - always! - displaying poor plate discipline, the Cubs would hack and flail at just about any pitch thrown towards home plate.

This year, however, the Cubs seem to be attacking the pitcher with a plan in mind. The hitters are patiently waiting for something to hit, and even notably hack-tastic youngsters like Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno are clearly making a conscious effort to get ahead in the count. I don't know the cause of this either - although Fukudome's fantastic example is certainly a strong possibility - but I hope like hell that it keeps up. This lineup has enough power that it would simply be a crime not to have lots of men on base when the homers are hit. If they gave out awards to coaches, I'd say the Cubs hitting coach would have to be an early favorite.

Miscellany

• I still hate Fox. Yesterday I was watching the Phillies-Mets match-up on that godforsaken network and was forced to endure the "stylings" of Mr. Tim McCarver. In the bottom of the eighth, the Phillies were down 4-2 with the bases loaded, one out, and pinch-hitter Geoff Jenkins at the plate. The Mets had Aaron Heilman on the mound. Heilman was clearly struggling with his location, and the Phillies looked like they were very close to tying things up. So why was Heilman - a righty - allowed to stay in against the lefty Jenkins? According to McCarver, it was because the Mets only had one lefty remaining in the bullpen in closer Billy Wagner and since it was the eight inning, it was "too early to bring him in." This was clearly the most important at-bat of the game. But because it wasn't within the prescribed duty of the modern closer, the Mets couldn't bring in their best pitcher. And Tim McCarver once again shows off his single digit IQ.
• The Blue Jays released Frank Thomas today, probably because he was complaining about his lack of playing time. He claimed he was benched because his contract contained a vestment clause that increased his pay if he attained a certain number of at-bats over the course of the season. He and GM J.P. Ricciardi apparantly had a sit-down and mutually agreed upon his release. He's going to be a valuable pickup for somebody - Detroit needs a DH while Sheffield is hurt, the Yankees might need someone (although both he and Giambi are DHs who can't really play first base anymore), the Mariners might want to improve on Jose Vidro...there's lots of options. However, the Comcast Sportsnet commentators I saw a few minutes ago arguing that the Royals could use him are just plain nuts. The Royals have young Billy Butler around to fill that role for the foreseeable future, and since neither Butler nor Thomas can play any other position, there's no need for the veteran on this club.
• It is very early in the season, and people should be careful about making too much out of the results up to this point. Any team can have a good (or terrible) two weeks, and the the fact that the Tigers are 6-12 is only so notable because the calendar reads "April." If the Tigers went 6-12 in, say, June, it'd be noted as a bad stretch of ball but ultimately something that can be overcome rather than as a portent of the remainder of the team's season. That said, I think I may have underrated the Diamondbacks and overrated the Dodgers. The Dodgers don't appear to be quite as youth-oriented as I'd like, and the injuries they've suffered have seemingly masked their unfortunate commitment to crummy vets (re: Nomar). The DBacks, on the other hand, have the feel of a young team whose players are all starting to mature at the same time. Like the early 90's Braves, but with most of the talent on offense rather than in the pitching staff, the Snakes have the ability to put together a dominant team in the relatively weak National League. As I said, it is early yet, but if everything breaks right I think this team could absolutely storm the league.
  

What comes up must come down

So Alfonso Soriano hurt himself a couple days ago, to the tune of a 15-day DL stint. The Cubs brought up 2B Eric Patterson, Corey's little brother, didn't start him in his first game, then gave him a start before sending him back to the minors today for Matt Murton. Murton, you may recall, is the solid corner outfielder the Cubs have had languishing in the minors.

Why did they even bring up Patterson? The Cubs are lousy with second baseman (by my count, DeRosa, Cedeno, Theriot, and Fontenot all play the position) and, as noted here, replacing Soriano's bat by playing, in essence, two second baseman is not very productive. The stated reason for bringing up Murton is that the Cubs will "be facing some left-handed pitchers, and the teams we're playing have some left-handers in the bullpen," according to Lou Piniella. But wasn't this forseeable a couple days ago, when they brought up Patterson? All of this smacks of nothing more than lazy team management.

Also, I've been busy and wanted to do a post examining Derrek Lee's claim that his hot hitting this year is a result of his hitting more fly balls and less grounders. But before I could get to it Derek Smart at the excellent Cub Town blog wrote exactly what I was going to:

I've included this season, last season, and his breakout 2005 for comparison. As you can see, he's actually hitting fewer flies this year compared to last, and if I'd included his entire career, you'd see he's hitting groudballs at a higher rate in 2008 than he did in any other year. He is, however, getting a ridiculous number of his flies to leave the yard - well above the rate he showed in that great 2005 season...

However, I must disagree with this conclusion:

Whether it's because his wrist feels better, he's seeing more cookies, or having one more biscuit for breakfast, it appears in the early going that the monster of 2005 - The Savior - has returned.

Derek's post shows that the real reason Lee's hitting so many homers so far is that his rate of home runs per fly ball is astronomically higher than his career averages. Whether it is because Lee has been hot or just a small sample size fluke, it isn't an indication that the best hitter in 2005 has returned completely to form.

I'm Back

The last two+ weeks have been very, very busy for me. I've been doing things like traveling and determining my future graduate school and city of residence and have had little to no time for keeping up this blog. But I have time now, and promise to post a lot more than, you know, every three weeks.

Short Takes on Predictions

AL East:

Red Sox: The defending champs feature a strong lineup with enough depth (Lowrie, Crisp, Anderson, etc.) to keep the offense humming all season no matter how many injuries may occur. The pitching staff, featuring younger players alongside the really old, may be slightly more precarious than last year but also has more potential. Becket, Matsuzaka, and Bucholtz could combine for a truly fearsome top of the rotation come September. The bullpen is deep as well.

Yankees: I’m going our on a limb and predicting that the Yanks won’t make the playoffs, although in truth you could select any one of the AL’s elite four (Boston, NY, Cleveland, and Detroit) as the odd team out with equally good odds. The lineup will score a lot of runs, possibly even more than the Tigers, but is also aging and stiff. Would anyone be surprised if Damon, Matsui, Giambi, or even Jeter misses significant time this year? Melky Cabrera, who I think is wildly overrated by many, can’t make up for that. The pitching will be solid, but I think the young guns need this year to acclimate to the league before they can take it by storm.

Toronto: Better than the pessimists say, worse than the optimists fear. Any team with this kind of top-notch pitching staff has a puncher’s chance – even in this division. The defense is super-spectacular, especially when Eckstein isn’t playing, which makes the pitching even tougher. However, their highly balanced but star-free lineup will almost certainly not put up the kinds of numbers they require to make the playoffs.

Tampa: I know everyone wants to proclaim them the next big thing – I’m looking at you, PECOTA – but I just don’t see it happening yet. Yes, they have an undeniably historic accululation of young talent, and yes, their minor leagues are still teeming with future stars so young they can’t even remember when The Simpsons was at its peak. But if the last few years have tought us anything, it’s that very young teams relying on very young talent almost always need a year to get everyone up to major league speed (for more, see: 2006 Diamondbacks, 2006 Brewers, 2002 Marlins).

Baltimore: You know why.

AL Central:

Indians: The Tigers and Indians are two very closely matched teams. The reason I like the Indians over the Tigers is that their holes are easier to fix; the easiest positions to upgrade during the season are the corner positions, and this lineup only needs help at left field, right field, and third base. Their pitching won't be as good as last year, when Sabathia threw approximately 700 innings and Carmona completely blew away the league, but it's a team strength nonetheless. The Tribe will also enjoy a shut-down bullpen, something the next team will be wishing for three out of every four games.

Tigers: (Wild Card) The Tigers probably won't score 1,000 runs, although it's easy to convince yourself that they might. The team boasts a lineup capable of crushing just about any pitcher's best stuff, and there's really no letup. I like Steven Goldman's tongue-in-cheek suggestion of keeping a 1,000-run-o-meter during the season - the Tigers don't have great depth, and it won't be easy to replace the production of any player in that lineup in the case of an injury. If Bonderman can put everything together, he and Verlander make for a great 1-2 at the top of the rotation, but the bullpen just isn't any good. Any game where the starting pitcher doesn't go at least five innings could quickly turn into a 10-8 slugfest. Even so, the Tigers could probably give about 120 runs scored to the Giants and still finish above the other teams in the division. (The Giants, on the other hand, would probably still have a below average offense...)

Twins: So they lost their team captain and starting center fielder to free agency, and traded away the best pitcher in baseball for meager returns. So Joe Mauer may never hit more than 20 homers in a season. So the combined ages of their starting outfielders wouldn't earn a senior citizen discount, and they're starting the wrong player at DH - again. That doesn't mean they aren't better than the White Sox. This team has young pitching out the wazoo, and the combination of a lightning-quick outfield and Adam Everett at short means that those young hurlers should break into the majors with a stellar defense backing them up. They won't score much, true, but I think Mauer and Kubel and Morneau will help propel them to something like a .500 record.

White Sox: Yes, the offense last year was horrid. Yes, the offense last year was so terrible in part because they had historically bad luck with BABIP, untimely injuries, and young players who never really developed. Yes, they can therefore expect a significant bounceback, which doesn't even include the valuable additions of Alexei Ramirez and Nick Swisher. Yes, last year's bullpen was about as fun to watch as Christian porn and five times as likely to result in scoring. Yes, I'm using the exact same rhetorical device I used in the Twins section. And finally, yes, the team will be better this year. But the prospects aren't that good, Ozzie's starting the veterans anyhow, and everyone on the team is aging. This is one freakishly assembled baseball club, and it'll be fun to watch because of it, but it sure as hell won't be any good.

Royals: Don't assume you can just dismiss the team as a perennial doormat, like I so gleefully did with the O's this year. The Royals will probably come in last place, but for the first time in years it's because of the right reasons. This team is all about it's young core - Butler, Gordon, Greinke, Moustakas, Hochevar, and Soria - and everything else is secondary. Every other useful part, from Gil Meche to Jose Guillen to Brian Bannister to The G Man, is about keeping the team above water and possibly converting them into useful parts via trade for the first good Royals team. I honestly believe that there's a plan, and that this team will not f*ck up the draft again. Look out, AL Central in 2011.

AL West:

Angels: Only because the Mariners are so out of their freakin' minds. I remember when this division was Chuck Norris-before-the-embarrassing-political-foray tough, but those days are long gone. Once Lackey comes back, the Halos will begin the slow and systematic accumulation of victories over the M's, A's, and Rangers. The offense is deep, and talented, and has the young players (Kendrick, Kotchman, maybe even Wood) with as good a shot at bursting out as the old guys have of breaking down. Scioscia is as good a manager as there is, and has shown an ability to mix and match players offensively (Figgins, DaVanon, Willits, Spezio, Fullmer) and defensively (the bullpen, since 2002) in a manner consistent with a winning ballclub. It's not a great team, and a big step down from the big guys in the Central and East, but it's far from bad.

Mariners: I expect a lot of things to go wrong with this team. Maybe it's because no team should be able to thrive with dead weight or below-average production at first, left, right, and DH - aka Sexson, Ibanez, Wilkerson, and Vidro - and compete. Maybe it's because the team gave away the center fielder who could push Ichiro back into a corner, thus improving the outfield defense, while switching Ibanez to first base and jettisoning Sexson, which fixes the first base black hole, in order to acquire an admittedly good starting pitcher with an injury history longer than this sentence. Maybe it's because no team should be rewarded for giving Carlos Silva $48 million. They're nuts to think they can compete this year, especially in a division you have to win in order to make the playoffs.

A's: Here's how I see the season unfolding: the A's do better than predicted through the first couple months of the season, although not amazingly well. The media chorus will demand GM Billy Beane improve the club for the stretch run, but he'll see through the lucky start, and the performances from oft-injured players like Harden that he can't expect for the rest of the season, and will finish the rebuilding process by shipping out Blanton and Ellis to some desperate NL teams. I'm looking at you, New York Mets.

Rangers: They can't really hit. They won't field. They still can't pitch. Yes, they'd compete in the NL Central, but AL teams are expected to do more than show up to the ballpark on time. If they play their cards right, they will arrange for things to come together 3 years from now when all that good young talent, especially catching talent, matures. In the mean time, they suck and they're boring.

NL East:

Mets: I really, really wanted to pick someone else here, and not just because I dislike the Mets. If Major League Baseball was like a video game, and you could turn injuries "off," then the Mets would be the clear favorites. But reality bites, as they say, and this team is like one gigantic oozing pus of an injury. Moises Alou is already out to start the season. Beltran deals with his bumps and bruises every season. Delgado is aging rapidly and physically in decline, even if I really like his politics. Luis Castillo is all about speed, but he's getting old and stiff. Even Jose Reyes had hamstring injuries in the past that could get scary if they come back. The pitching staff includes El Duque, which means "Age 49" in Spanish, and Pedro Martinez, who fights dogs with his little people pals in between devastating arm and shoulder injuries. And there's NO freaking depth, no minor league replacements, no nothing should anybody go down. If the Mets are healthy, they win 95 and the division. But this season could implode quickly if if they don't.

Braves: Just based on track record, really. They hit a ton and have the horses in the rotation to take them far. If Frenchy Larou really does have that breakout season, and one of their 10,000 good center field prospects has a great rookie season, everybody better lookout. Then again, they're relying on Mike Hampton - on purpose. The bullpen is marginal, at best. And this absolutely positively cannot be the year John Smoltz acts his age.

Phillies: Yes, 3/4 of that infield is just insane. And Pat Burrell can hit a little, I think. But I don't buy the rotation or bullpen for a second. Cole Hamels is a star, if he can stay healthy. Bret Myers, Wife Beater Esquire...well, I'm just rooting hard for him to fail completely. Tom Gordon might stay healthy for three months, and Brad Lidge will likely do alright. But no other pitcher on this team is even remotely reliable.

Nationals: I love their new ballpark, their manager, many of their young position players, and the direction the minor league system is going in. I absolutely love the steals the team made over the winter, and that this franchise is willing to take troubled but talented young players in order to get themselves out of the cellar. That said, I could assemble a more accomplished pitching staff from the cast of Lost. Look for Chad Cordero to be traded midseason.

Marlins: Hanley Ramirez is the best hitter in the division, David Wright and Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley and Chipper Jones be damned. Uggla is just about the most entertaining second baseman in baseball, and an offensive plus to boot. Hermida, Jacobs, Maybin, Miller, etc. are all or will be very good players. But whoo doggy! This team blows. Easily the worst ownership in American sports, now that Bill Wirtz is dead.

NL Central:

Brewers: I know, I know. But I think this team is 180 innings of Ben Sheets away from taking the top spot. There's just too much talent on this team to allow it to stagnate again, and I don't think anyone should count on a massive second-half fade again. I'm not saying they are a lock: there's injury risk everywhere, especially in the suddenly thin rotation, and the bullpen is a big question mark, and the defense just might not get good enough to help the pitchers. I'm just betting that those things won't hold the team back, and a great heart of the lineup will join hands with Sheets and Gallardo and Parra to form a really tough Red Rover team, or something. However, if they should fail, Ned Yost will have to be fired; I know Brewers fans don't like him already and he's got the talent right now to succeed.

Cubs: (Wild Card) See the season preview. This team is absolutely good enough to win the division, and there's no real reason why I don't think they will beyond a gut feeling. But every position except shortstop and maybe center is solid to great, the rotation is one of the better ones in the league, the bullpen will probably be a strong asset, and there's reinforcements in the minors. I guess I'm just hedging my bets based on a long tradition of this team being the Chicago Cubs. Honestly, given the rest of the division, I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers and Cubs just pad their win totals until both are locks to make the playoffs and don't care in what order.

Astros: I'm really only picking them third because they're crazy. You know how crazy guys sometimes have superhuman strength or an ability to withstand a lot of pain, like when people get high on PCP? That's this team. They are weak all around, but completely and utterly committed to winning this year. The minor league system is more barren than George Bush's soul, and as far as I know nobody in the front office has ever started even a single war. Unlike Bush, when the fall rolls around they will face a very uncomfortable reckoning.

Reds: OK, there's actually a second reason why I'm picking the Astros for third place. Dusty Baker, the worst manager in baseball, is at the helm this year for the historic franchise. That's right, the guy who has successfully broken in one - count 'em, one - decent major league regular hitter in his entire, decade-plus coaching career is running a team filled to the brim with exciting young talent. The man who singlehandedly destroyed Mark Prior's career, and severely derailed Kerry Wood's, is now in charge of two top pitching prospects in Cueto and Bailey. On top of all that, the Reds brought in Corey Patterson - whose failures to develop as a player Cubs fans place solely at the feet of Mr. Baker - and his .298 OBP to start over a top-notch prospect and lead off. Just wait, Reds fans, just wait. I'll see you at the press conference where Dusty uses his elementary-age child to deflect tough questions from reporters. Again.

Cardinals: Albert Pujols = good. Troy Glaus, Adam Wainright, Jason Isringhousen, Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan = meh. Everyone else = ye gads. Tony La Russa = total dick; drunkard; hates the GM. If Pujols gets surgery for his arm, the Cardinals = Pirates West. It's early, but it sure feels good to be a Cubs fan.

Pirates: The Cardinals, minus Pujols. Lots of good complementary players, in the Bays and Nadys and Pearces and Wilsons, and a good closer, and maybe better starting pitching. But there's just not that much difference between the two franchises at the moment, excepting two very good prospects the Cardinals have in the minors. Here's to 16 losing seasons in a row!

NL West:

Dodgers: Touch call, but I think Torre may actually stick with the youth this year. The Dodgers aren't any better than the Rox or Padres or Diamondbacks if Garciapparra and Pierre and company are getting a lot of starts. If Ethier and Loney and LaRoche and Kemp are allowed to step into their own, however, watch out. This team also has a good second baseman in Kent, and the best catcher in the NL in Martin. The pitching is solid all the way through, and occasionally brilliant, and the minor league system is still stocked. Of course, if Torre (aided and abetted by Colletti) go the veteran route, all bets are off. Kevin Goldstein, BP prospect maven, said that last year at the trade deadline Colletti was about to trade uber-prospect Clayton Kershaw, and the player development staff actually had to sit him down and explain, slowly, just how valuable the young lefty is. So the Dodgers aren't exactly a lock, if you get my drift.

Diamondbacks: Think last year's team, minus 8 games to correct for how lucky they were, plus 5 games because the talented young players have a year of experience in the bigs now, plus 3 games with the addition of Haren. Then throw in a luck modifier. This team could win 92, or 82. Tough to tell, but I'm guessing 85 mostly because I expect the bullpen to be worse this year.

Rockies: Last year's team really was good. There's nothing all that different about them this year, really. The thing is, I just can't see them playing quite as well defensively - one of the things sabermetricians have learned over the years is that players and teams have fluke years on defense as well as offense. I think they played above their heads a bit defensively last year, and the craptacular pitching staff they throw out there this year won't benefit from the players behind them as much. Tulo, though, is a monster.

Padres: The Padres have been Wiley E. Coyote, running on air after leaving the cliff behind, for a few years now. This is almost certainly the most creative team in baseball, constantly finding other team's discards and unwanted/underrated role players and turning them into valuable contributors. I think this is the year they finally look down, as the rest of the division is finally good enough where that kind of margin-juggling just isn't enough anymore. Plus, they have the worst outfield in the majors, except for the next team.

Giants: Lincecum and Cain and pray for acid rain to destroy the playing field. Joe DiMaggio once hit safely in 56 straight contests; I think this team might just fail to hit safely in 57 straight. Seriously though, folks, any starting pitcher opposing this team's lineup is 3-1 to throw a perfect game. In fact, when Marlins pitchers face the Giants batters in spacious Dolphins Stadium, the entire space time continuum may blink out of existence rather than decide how those match-ups will end. Man, I've got a million of these, including my prediction that Lincecum and Cain will form one of the top 1-2 combinations in baseball and finish the year with a combined 15-24 record. This team is starting a shortstop who hit .220 in High-A last year! I'm going to finish this miserable comment the only way I know how: The Aristocrats!



ALCS: Indians at Red Sox
NLCS: Cubs at Mets
World Series: What the hell, Cubs over Red Sox, why not already?

AL ROY: Jones
NL ROY: Fukudome

AL MOY: Maddon
NL MOY: Yost

AL Cy Young: Verlander
NL Cy Young: Santana

AL MVP: Cabrera
NL MVP: Wright

My fantasy team: 4th place.