Short Takes on Predictions

AL East:

Red Sox: The defending champs feature a strong lineup with enough depth (Lowrie, Crisp, Anderson, etc.) to keep the offense humming all season no matter how many injuries may occur. The pitching staff, featuring younger players alongside the really old, may be slightly more precarious than last year but also has more potential. Becket, Matsuzaka, and Bucholtz could combine for a truly fearsome top of the rotation come September. The bullpen is deep as well.

Yankees: I’m going our on a limb and predicting that the Yanks won’t make the playoffs, although in truth you could select any one of the AL’s elite four (Boston, NY, Cleveland, and Detroit) as the odd team out with equally good odds. The lineup will score a lot of runs, possibly even more than the Tigers, but is also aging and stiff. Would anyone be surprised if Damon, Matsui, Giambi, or even Jeter misses significant time this year? Melky Cabrera, who I think is wildly overrated by many, can’t make up for that. The pitching will be solid, but I think the young guns need this year to acclimate to the league before they can take it by storm.

Toronto: Better than the pessimists say, worse than the optimists fear. Any team with this kind of top-notch pitching staff has a puncher’s chance – even in this division. The defense is super-spectacular, especially when Eckstein isn’t playing, which makes the pitching even tougher. However, their highly balanced but star-free lineup will almost certainly not put up the kinds of numbers they require to make the playoffs.

Tampa: I know everyone wants to proclaim them the next big thing – I’m looking at you, PECOTA – but I just don’t see it happening yet. Yes, they have an undeniably historic accululation of young talent, and yes, their minor leagues are still teeming with future stars so young they can’t even remember when The Simpsons was at its peak. But if the last few years have tought us anything, it’s that very young teams relying on very young talent almost always need a year to get everyone up to major league speed (for more, see: 2006 Diamondbacks, 2006 Brewers, 2002 Marlins).

Baltimore: You know why.

AL Central:

Indians: The Tigers and Indians are two very closely matched teams. The reason I like the Indians over the Tigers is that their holes are easier to fix; the easiest positions to upgrade during the season are the corner positions, and this lineup only needs help at left field, right field, and third base. Their pitching won't be as good as last year, when Sabathia threw approximately 700 innings and Carmona completely blew away the league, but it's a team strength nonetheless. The Tribe will also enjoy a shut-down bullpen, something the next team will be wishing for three out of every four games.

Tigers: (Wild Card) The Tigers probably won't score 1,000 runs, although it's easy to convince yourself that they might. The team boasts a lineup capable of crushing just about any pitcher's best stuff, and there's really no letup. I like Steven Goldman's tongue-in-cheek suggestion of keeping a 1,000-run-o-meter during the season - the Tigers don't have great depth, and it won't be easy to replace the production of any player in that lineup in the case of an injury. If Bonderman can put everything together, he and Verlander make for a great 1-2 at the top of the rotation, but the bullpen just isn't any good. Any game where the starting pitcher doesn't go at least five innings could quickly turn into a 10-8 slugfest. Even so, the Tigers could probably give about 120 runs scored to the Giants and still finish above the other teams in the division. (The Giants, on the other hand, would probably still have a below average offense...)

Twins: So they lost their team captain and starting center fielder to free agency, and traded away the best pitcher in baseball for meager returns. So Joe Mauer may never hit more than 20 homers in a season. So the combined ages of their starting outfielders wouldn't earn a senior citizen discount, and they're starting the wrong player at DH - again. That doesn't mean they aren't better than the White Sox. This team has young pitching out the wazoo, and the combination of a lightning-quick outfield and Adam Everett at short means that those young hurlers should break into the majors with a stellar defense backing them up. They won't score much, true, but I think Mauer and Kubel and Morneau will help propel them to something like a .500 record.

White Sox: Yes, the offense last year was horrid. Yes, the offense last year was so terrible in part because they had historically bad luck with BABIP, untimely injuries, and young players who never really developed. Yes, they can therefore expect a significant bounceback, which doesn't even include the valuable additions of Alexei Ramirez and Nick Swisher. Yes, last year's bullpen was about as fun to watch as Christian porn and five times as likely to result in scoring. Yes, I'm using the exact same rhetorical device I used in the Twins section. And finally, yes, the team will be better this year. But the prospects aren't that good, Ozzie's starting the veterans anyhow, and everyone on the team is aging. This is one freakishly assembled baseball club, and it'll be fun to watch because of it, but it sure as hell won't be any good.

Royals: Don't assume you can just dismiss the team as a perennial doormat, like I so gleefully did with the O's this year. The Royals will probably come in last place, but for the first time in years it's because of the right reasons. This team is all about it's young core - Butler, Gordon, Greinke, Moustakas, Hochevar, and Soria - and everything else is secondary. Every other useful part, from Gil Meche to Jose Guillen to Brian Bannister to The G Man, is about keeping the team above water and possibly converting them into useful parts via trade for the first good Royals team. I honestly believe that there's a plan, and that this team will not f*ck up the draft again. Look out, AL Central in 2011.

AL West:

Angels: Only because the Mariners are so out of their freakin' minds. I remember when this division was Chuck Norris-before-the-embarrassing-political-foray tough, but those days are long gone. Once Lackey comes back, the Halos will begin the slow and systematic accumulation of victories over the M's, A's, and Rangers. The offense is deep, and talented, and has the young players (Kendrick, Kotchman, maybe even Wood) with as good a shot at bursting out as the old guys have of breaking down. Scioscia is as good a manager as there is, and has shown an ability to mix and match players offensively (Figgins, DaVanon, Willits, Spezio, Fullmer) and defensively (the bullpen, since 2002) in a manner consistent with a winning ballclub. It's not a great team, and a big step down from the big guys in the Central and East, but it's far from bad.

Mariners: I expect a lot of things to go wrong with this team. Maybe it's because no team should be able to thrive with dead weight or below-average production at first, left, right, and DH - aka Sexson, Ibanez, Wilkerson, and Vidro - and compete. Maybe it's because the team gave away the center fielder who could push Ichiro back into a corner, thus improving the outfield defense, while switching Ibanez to first base and jettisoning Sexson, which fixes the first base black hole, in order to acquire an admittedly good starting pitcher with an injury history longer than this sentence. Maybe it's because no team should be rewarded for giving Carlos Silva $48 million. They're nuts to think they can compete this year, especially in a division you have to win in order to make the playoffs.

A's: Here's how I see the season unfolding: the A's do better than predicted through the first couple months of the season, although not amazingly well. The media chorus will demand GM Billy Beane improve the club for the stretch run, but he'll see through the lucky start, and the performances from oft-injured players like Harden that he can't expect for the rest of the season, and will finish the rebuilding process by shipping out Blanton and Ellis to some desperate NL teams. I'm looking at you, New York Mets.

Rangers: They can't really hit. They won't field. They still can't pitch. Yes, they'd compete in the NL Central, but AL teams are expected to do more than show up to the ballpark on time. If they play their cards right, they will arrange for things to come together 3 years from now when all that good young talent, especially catching talent, matures. In the mean time, they suck and they're boring.

NL East:

Mets: I really, really wanted to pick someone else here, and not just because I dislike the Mets. If Major League Baseball was like a video game, and you could turn injuries "off," then the Mets would be the clear favorites. But reality bites, as they say, and this team is like one gigantic oozing pus of an injury. Moises Alou is already out to start the season. Beltran deals with his bumps and bruises every season. Delgado is aging rapidly and physically in decline, even if I really like his politics. Luis Castillo is all about speed, but he's getting old and stiff. Even Jose Reyes had hamstring injuries in the past that could get scary if they come back. The pitching staff includes El Duque, which means "Age 49" in Spanish, and Pedro Martinez, who fights dogs with his little people pals in between devastating arm and shoulder injuries. And there's NO freaking depth, no minor league replacements, no nothing should anybody go down. If the Mets are healthy, they win 95 and the division. But this season could implode quickly if if they don't.

Braves: Just based on track record, really. They hit a ton and have the horses in the rotation to take them far. If Frenchy Larou really does have that breakout season, and one of their 10,000 good center field prospects has a great rookie season, everybody better lookout. Then again, they're relying on Mike Hampton - on purpose. The bullpen is marginal, at best. And this absolutely positively cannot be the year John Smoltz acts his age.

Phillies: Yes, 3/4 of that infield is just insane. And Pat Burrell can hit a little, I think. But I don't buy the rotation or bullpen for a second. Cole Hamels is a star, if he can stay healthy. Bret Myers, Wife Beater Esquire...well, I'm just rooting hard for him to fail completely. Tom Gordon might stay healthy for three months, and Brad Lidge will likely do alright. But no other pitcher on this team is even remotely reliable.

Nationals: I love their new ballpark, their manager, many of their young position players, and the direction the minor league system is going in. I absolutely love the steals the team made over the winter, and that this franchise is willing to take troubled but talented young players in order to get themselves out of the cellar. That said, I could assemble a more accomplished pitching staff from the cast of Lost. Look for Chad Cordero to be traded midseason.

Marlins: Hanley Ramirez is the best hitter in the division, David Wright and Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley and Chipper Jones be damned. Uggla is just about the most entertaining second baseman in baseball, and an offensive plus to boot. Hermida, Jacobs, Maybin, Miller, etc. are all or will be very good players. But whoo doggy! This team blows. Easily the worst ownership in American sports, now that Bill Wirtz is dead.

NL Central:

Brewers: I know, I know. But I think this team is 180 innings of Ben Sheets away from taking the top spot. There's just too much talent on this team to allow it to stagnate again, and I don't think anyone should count on a massive second-half fade again. I'm not saying they are a lock: there's injury risk everywhere, especially in the suddenly thin rotation, and the bullpen is a big question mark, and the defense just might not get good enough to help the pitchers. I'm just betting that those things won't hold the team back, and a great heart of the lineup will join hands with Sheets and Gallardo and Parra to form a really tough Red Rover team, or something. However, if they should fail, Ned Yost will have to be fired; I know Brewers fans don't like him already and he's got the talent right now to succeed.

Cubs: (Wild Card) See the season preview. This team is absolutely good enough to win the division, and there's no real reason why I don't think they will beyond a gut feeling. But every position except shortstop and maybe center is solid to great, the rotation is one of the better ones in the league, the bullpen will probably be a strong asset, and there's reinforcements in the minors. I guess I'm just hedging my bets based on a long tradition of this team being the Chicago Cubs. Honestly, given the rest of the division, I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers and Cubs just pad their win totals until both are locks to make the playoffs and don't care in what order.

Astros: I'm really only picking them third because they're crazy. You know how crazy guys sometimes have superhuman strength or an ability to withstand a lot of pain, like when people get high on PCP? That's this team. They are weak all around, but completely and utterly committed to winning this year. The minor league system is more barren than George Bush's soul, and as far as I know nobody in the front office has ever started even a single war. Unlike Bush, when the fall rolls around they will face a very uncomfortable reckoning.

Reds: OK, there's actually a second reason why I'm picking the Astros for third place. Dusty Baker, the worst manager in baseball, is at the helm this year for the historic franchise. That's right, the guy who has successfully broken in one - count 'em, one - decent major league regular hitter in his entire, decade-plus coaching career is running a team filled to the brim with exciting young talent. The man who singlehandedly destroyed Mark Prior's career, and severely derailed Kerry Wood's, is now in charge of two top pitching prospects in Cueto and Bailey. On top of all that, the Reds brought in Corey Patterson - whose failures to develop as a player Cubs fans place solely at the feet of Mr. Baker - and his .298 OBP to start over a top-notch prospect and lead off. Just wait, Reds fans, just wait. I'll see you at the press conference where Dusty uses his elementary-age child to deflect tough questions from reporters. Again.

Cardinals: Albert Pujols = good. Troy Glaus, Adam Wainright, Jason Isringhousen, Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan = meh. Everyone else = ye gads. Tony La Russa = total dick; drunkard; hates the GM. If Pujols gets surgery for his arm, the Cardinals = Pirates West. It's early, but it sure feels good to be a Cubs fan.

Pirates: The Cardinals, minus Pujols. Lots of good complementary players, in the Bays and Nadys and Pearces and Wilsons, and a good closer, and maybe better starting pitching. But there's just not that much difference between the two franchises at the moment, excepting two very good prospects the Cardinals have in the minors. Here's to 16 losing seasons in a row!

NL West:

Dodgers: Touch call, but I think Torre may actually stick with the youth this year. The Dodgers aren't any better than the Rox or Padres or Diamondbacks if Garciapparra and Pierre and company are getting a lot of starts. If Ethier and Loney and LaRoche and Kemp are allowed to step into their own, however, watch out. This team also has a good second baseman in Kent, and the best catcher in the NL in Martin. The pitching is solid all the way through, and occasionally brilliant, and the minor league system is still stocked. Of course, if Torre (aided and abetted by Colletti) go the veteran route, all bets are off. Kevin Goldstein, BP prospect maven, said that last year at the trade deadline Colletti was about to trade uber-prospect Clayton Kershaw, and the player development staff actually had to sit him down and explain, slowly, just how valuable the young lefty is. So the Dodgers aren't exactly a lock, if you get my drift.

Diamondbacks: Think last year's team, minus 8 games to correct for how lucky they were, plus 5 games because the talented young players have a year of experience in the bigs now, plus 3 games with the addition of Haren. Then throw in a luck modifier. This team could win 92, or 82. Tough to tell, but I'm guessing 85 mostly because I expect the bullpen to be worse this year.

Rockies: Last year's team really was good. There's nothing all that different about them this year, really. The thing is, I just can't see them playing quite as well defensively - one of the things sabermetricians have learned over the years is that players and teams have fluke years on defense as well as offense. I think they played above their heads a bit defensively last year, and the craptacular pitching staff they throw out there this year won't benefit from the players behind them as much. Tulo, though, is a monster.

Padres: The Padres have been Wiley E. Coyote, running on air after leaving the cliff behind, for a few years now. This is almost certainly the most creative team in baseball, constantly finding other team's discards and unwanted/underrated role players and turning them into valuable contributors. I think this is the year they finally look down, as the rest of the division is finally good enough where that kind of margin-juggling just isn't enough anymore. Plus, they have the worst outfield in the majors, except for the next team.

Giants: Lincecum and Cain and pray for acid rain to destroy the playing field. Joe DiMaggio once hit safely in 56 straight contests; I think this team might just fail to hit safely in 57 straight. Seriously though, folks, any starting pitcher opposing this team's lineup is 3-1 to throw a perfect game. In fact, when Marlins pitchers face the Giants batters in spacious Dolphins Stadium, the entire space time continuum may blink out of existence rather than decide how those match-ups will end. Man, I've got a million of these, including my prediction that Lincecum and Cain will form one of the top 1-2 combinations in baseball and finish the year with a combined 15-24 record. This team is starting a shortstop who hit .220 in High-A last year! I'm going to finish this miserable comment the only way I know how: The Aristocrats!



ALCS: Indians at Red Sox
NLCS: Cubs at Mets
World Series: What the hell, Cubs over Red Sox, why not already?

AL ROY: Jones
NL ROY: Fukudome

AL MOY: Maddon
NL MOY: Yost

AL Cy Young: Verlander
NL Cy Young: Santana

AL MVP: Cabrera
NL MVP: Wright

My fantasy team: 4th place.

Some Thoughts on The U.S. Season Opener

I've been watching the Nationals host the Braves in the U.S. season opener, and noticed a few interesting things along the way:

1. The outfield looks large pretty large, including deep, triangular left-center field that resembles a sort of mini version of the Bermuda Triangle in Florida. Those sort of extreme ballpark quirks really annoy me, as they make me feel like the architects are trying too hard to make the field "individual" or "unique." However, the park appears to be really quite beautiful and the announcers have been saying that you can see various D.C. landmarks from different points in the stadium, which is awesome.

2. The weather in D.C is obviously highly variable over the course of the season, and the cool weather they are experiencing tonight won't last throughout the summer. That said, it appears that balls hit hard and deep to right field, on a line, carry extremely well. The Braves hit a couple of lasers in that direction and both times the ball stayed up in the air for what felt like forever.

3. Peter Moylan has a really entertaining submariner-slider.

4. I haven't had a chance to watch the Nationals too often, but I find it hard to believe this offense will score a lot of runs. Young, Zimmerman, Johnson, and Kearns form a solid core, and Dukes and Milledge have promise. But the Braves got 24 straight batters out at one point, and the Nationals' plate appearances were terrible. This team looked like someone told them they'd be executed if they took a walk. Maybe swinging early was their game plan against Hudson, but why they'd want to just hack at every pitch a sinkerballer throws is beyond me.

5. Zimmerman won it with a walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth, a pretty spectacular finish for the first game in Nationals Park history. Now I have yet another reason to list Zimmerman as one of my favorite players.

6. Nats closer Chad Cordero was warming up with the lead during the bottom of the eighth, but Jon Rauch came in to close instead. I'm pretty sure I could here a million fantasy baseball team owners groan in unison when the top of the ninth began, sort of like how Obi Wan Kenobe could feel the disturbance in the force. Cordero was apparently stiff warming up, and lo and behold - Rauch blew the save.

7. Odalis Perez isn't a very good starting pitcher, but despite everyone snarking out over his being a horrid opening day pitcher, he turned in a good performance. You can see why he's been able to stick around so long - he throws hardish, with decent movement, for a lefty. He is also high effort (five innings tonight) and will probably never have great command.

Que Pasa, Matt Murton?

We take a break from our regularly scheduled Cubs Season Preview to bring you this breaking announcement:

Ronny Cedeno and Mike Fontenot will make the Cubs' final 25, and with the addition of Reed Johnson, Murton appears to be headed to Triple-A Iowa. Cubs general manager Jim Hendry has been trying to work a deal to find someplace for the right-handed-hitting outfielder to play.

"I like Murton," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said Thursday. "I mentioned [Wednesday] that if things don't work out here, I hope he gets a chance at a big league job. I think Jim feels the same way. I think Murton has options."

It's more or less a maxim in baseball that if, on the very day that he makes you the last batter cut in spring training, the manager of your team tells the media that he thinks you should be playing in the big leagues, and that he hopes you get that opportunity, you should start packing your bags and reading up on the housing markets in Seattle or Cleveland or something.

Matt Murton, aka the Red Baron, is too good a hitter to be playing in the minors. A career .296/.365/.455 batter, Murton plays a solid left field and can stand around in right field if your manager team's manager doesn't care about having a strong throwing arm out there too much. Unfortunately for Murton, he's become something of a niche player:

• He doesn't hit well enough to star, but if he's your team's second best outfielder you are probably doing OK
• He hits for average and power, and can get on base, but isn't great at any of those things
• He doesn't add an extra skill to elevate him above other outfielders, like steal lots of bases, make contact at an extremely high rate, throw like Clemente, or defend his position like Larry Walker
• A righty batter, he hits lefties (.326/.399/.510) like he's Derrek Lee but faces the normal-handed like he's, well, Derrek Lee's crappy first half of 2007

Essentially, Murton is a valuable player on a team that needs a young, improving lefty-mashing left fielder who can also start a few dozen times against righties without killing you. If your team's lineup is especially lefty-heavy, or just flat out great, and you can support a starting outfielder who won't crush right handed pitching, then the Baron is a perfect fit.

The Cubs are simply not that team. They are more than set at the outfield corners, with two highly paid stars in Soriano and Fukudome providing plus offense and defense for the foreseeable future. The untested outfielder is Felix Pie in center; he's young, very talented, and will need a right-handed platoon player to spot him every now and then against tough lefties. The newest Cub, Reed Johnson, is exactly that. Not only is Murton incapable of playing center field, he is - ironically enough - to good to be the short half of a platoon anyways.

I believe that it is in the Cubs' best interest to trade Murton now. First of all, allowing him to start elsewhere is the kind of classy move that will be appreciated by players around the league. Second, Murton is still young (26) and under control for a couple of years, meaning he could get back more in value now than he is likely to after spending some or all of this season in Iowa. Third, there are several teams despairing over their corner outfield situation as the beginning of the regular season looms. This means that the next few days are the perfect time to strike.

The Cubs, however, are pretty set at the major league level. There aren't really any positions that need to be filled, even on the bench, and the bullpen and starting rotation have pretty decent depth at the major and minor league levels. The minor league system is, however, weaker than it has traditionally been in the past and could use an infusion of young talent. Anyone with upside will do, although I believe that the Cubs should acquire a Quad-A type center fielder with plus defensive skills in case Pie completely fails or becomes injured.

Here are some prospective trade partners:

Seattle could use an OBP injection in their lineup, and they are not completely set in the outfield. Their only right-handed outfielder is non-entity (but good guy) Charleton Jimerson, and the team will be relying on the consistently injured Brad Wilkerson to play every day in right field. Left fielder Raul Ibanez can't hit lefties. Murton, who is durable, right handed, and a high OBP guy, would make for a great fit. As a bonus, the Mariners are salivating at the thought of competing against an Angels team that will start the season without its two best starting pitchers and may look to make a splash before the beginning of the season. Jeremy Reed, who has worn out his welcome in Seattle, would make for a decent return, especially if paired with a low-level, highish-upside pitcher.

Tampa is loaded to the gills with prospects, and with Rocco Baldelli out again with a mitochondrial disorder, would like to acquire some solid, ready-now production in an outfield corner. Murton could pair with former Cub Cliff Floyd to offer quality production in the outfield and DH spot on the cheap. Any one of Tampa's fifth through eight best pitching prospect alone would probably be a decent return.

In my opinion, the Mets make for the best trading partners. Moises Alou is out with an injury again, and right now the rest of the outfield consists of superstar CF Carlos Beltran, RF Ryan Church, and three fourth/fifth outfielder types. Murton could start every day in left field until Alou returns, and then spot for both him and the lefty Church for the rest of the year. The Mets are dangerously low on depth anywhere on the roster, and adding Murton would solidify their precarious status as NL pennant favorites. There isn't too much left in their minor league system to get back in return, but a young pitcher like Niese or hitter like Nick Evans would be a solid addition to the minor league system. The Mets are desperate to win after last season, and even after the Lastings Milledge trade, seem to me the most likely to overpay for Murton.

Cubs 2008 Season Preview, Part I

In 2007, the Cubs failed to reach the World Series. As a card-carrying sports blogger, it is now my duty to inform you that, should the Cubs fail to win the Fall Classic this upcoming October, they will have gone an unheard-of 100 years without a championship. Nevertheless, spirits are high in Wrigleyville: the ’07 Cubs, a flawed team for sure, won the NL Central before being swept in the NLDS. This year, the Cubbies have imported from Japan a potentially excellent right fielder, Kosuke Fukudome, who promises to provide four critical components last year’s team lacked: stability in right field, quality defense, substantial on-base abilities, and a middle-of-the-order left-handed bat. The expectations have clearly been raised on the North Side, and should the Cubs deliver with a World Series victory, you will find me amongst the throngs of drunken revelers celebrating in the streets outside of Wrigley Field. It promises to be the greatest party the Lakeshore Liberals will ever experience - until approximately one week later, when Barack Obama wins the Presidential Election.

Before we pop the champaign and toast Mike Fontenot’s improbable Game 7, Series-winning 14^th inning inside-the-park homerun, however, we must take a critical, unbiased look at the team that represents (half of) the good people of Chicago. While one can never find enough things to nitpick about when it comes to the Cubs, I’m going to limit myself to five main questions in the spirit of The Hardball Times’ excellent series in Part I of the season preview and follow that up with a position-by-position breakdown of the team in Part II. By the end of the piece, I hope to have come to some sort of conclusion as to the prospects for the upcoming season.

Question 1: Back Of The Rotation

The first three positions in the Cubs starting rotation haven’t changed from last year: Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Rich Hill will be the Northsiders’ front line. Last year those three combined for 618.3 innings pitched, a very solid total, while each provided an ERA+ between 122 and 118. While Rich Hill is considered young, he will be 28 this season, and figures to provide production similar if not better to last year’s. Zambrano and Lilly each have issues surrounding them, but at the very least, are known as excellent innings-eaters. As of this spring, the last two spots in the rotation were up for grabs. Jason Marquis, who was surprisingly signed to a three-year deal before last season, pitched surprisingly well in the first half of the year, and then pitched exactly as poorly as everyone expected in the last half, angered manager Lou Piniella this spring when he proclaimed that he deserved to have a slot in the rotation. Former Cub (and personal fave) Jon Lieber was brought in after experiencing a couple of injury-marred seasons elsewhere, and was widely considered a lock for the rotation. Imagine Lieber when he was with the Cubs previously: pitching very quickly, spotting his fastball and his devastating slider away to right-handed batters, and trying to bluff his way past left-handers. Now imagine him six years older, twenty pounds heavier, and about fifteen percent worse. He’s a useful player, in that he can eat innings, pound the zone against righties, and provide depth for any rotation in baseball; how the Cubs will choose to use him remains to be seen. Last year’s closer, Ryan Dempster, was also in the starting mix all spring long: although he’s more-or-less succeeded in the closer’s role, Demps has always made it clear that he prefers to start. He was never a great starting pitcher, but who knows? Maybe he’s learned a thing or two, and his multi-year absence from starting makes it difficult to peg how he’ll do. Lastly, a few young pups, Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, and Kevin Hart were theoretically in consideration, but I was never convinced that they were going to make the big league team, partially because of the situation explained in Question 2. (Late update: the Cubs announced that Dempster and Marquis will start the season in the rotation. I take this to team that they failed to trade Marquis, as they were rumored to be doing, and couldn’t stomach sending their $7 million dollar man to pitch in the bullpen.)

Question 2: Whither Brian Roberts?

The Cubs have been rumored to be on the verge of acquiring Baltimore second baseman Brian Roberts since your home had equity. As you can see from this astute post at The Cub Reporter, most Cubs fans have long finished debating whether or not this would be a good move and just want something to happen already. Reports have suggested that the Fightin’ Seans (Marshall and Gallagher), hard-to-get-a-read-on prospect Donald Veal, shortstop Ronny Cedeno, and blue chip centerfielder Felix Pie have all been in the mix as trade chips for the standout leadoff hitter. I will stipulate right out that trading Pie is a bad idea: he’s got serious talent, could break out this year, and is really the Cubs’ only true centerfielder. So what trade would make sense from the perspective of the Cubs?

Brian Michael Roberts is a 30-year old career second baseman with a composite .281/.351/.409 line in seven major league seasons. A switch-hitter, he batted .290/.377/.432 last year, for a 112 OPS+. His offensive value, however, is not merely at the plate: one of the best base stealers in the game, he has swiped 186 career stolen bases at an impressive 80% rate, and according to Dan Fox of Baseball Prospectus, Roberts was the overall the fourth best baserunner in the game in 2007. (He also rated an impressive +31 bases according to Bill James in 2007.) Defensively, Baseball Prospectus rates him about average, while John Dewan shows Roberts being the seventh best defensive two-sacker in the game from 2005-7, although he didn’t place amongst the top ten last year. Perhaps Roberts’ biggest advantage for the Cubs would be his reputation as a leadoff man, which would finally convince Piniella to move Alfonso Soriano further down in the lineup to a position to which he is better suited.

Here are a few 2008 projections for Mr. Roberts:

It appears as though Roberts is a very easy player to predict: every single projection foresees a batting average in the .280s, an OBP in the .360s, and a slugging percentage between .414 and .439. In fact, I’d bet that there aren’t ten players in baseball that all these projection systems agree on as much as Brian Roberts. Maybe not even five. Even taking into account the fact that his statistics would change somewhat moving from Baltimore to Chicago, given the different leagues and ballparks, it is simple to predict what kind of production the Cubs will get if they pull off this trade.

In comparison, last year Cubs second basemen hit .286/.353/.413, or almost exactly what Brian Roberts is expected to hit next year. Mark DeRosa, the primary Cubs second baseman in 2007, hit .293/.371/.420. Other Cubs players, such as Mike Fontenot, Ryan Theriot, Ronny Cedeno, and Eric Patterson are all expected to be in the mix for playing time at the keystone this year. If the Cubs do not trade for Roberts, it is highly likely that the Cubs will mix-and-match those players in the middle infield much the same as last year. This latter strategy may not be pretty, but it can be effective, as one of Lou Piniella’s greatest strengths as a manager is his willingness to occasionally platoon but always ride the hot hand without regard to salary or veteran status - so long as the starter losing playing time isn’t a star, as would be the situation here.

In my estimation, the Cubs will never trade Felix Pie for Roberts. Therefore, it is likely that the outgoing players will include Ronny Cedeno, Donald Veal, Kevin Hart, and one or both of the Fightin’s Seans. Cedeno has yet to hit in the majors, but he has his backers (Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus’s prospect hound, personally vouched for him at a gathering last September). Veal is a big, strong power lefty with little command but a world of potential. The Sean’s have the potential to be number three or number four starting pitchers in the majors, starting this year (Marshall had a 119 ERA+ in over 103 innings last year in the bigs), and Kevin Hart is a small-upside, minor prospect who can slot into a rotation or bullpen easily enough.

As I see it, the pros and cons of the trade are: as follows

PROS:

• Roberts is a true leadoff man, who can get on base and then steal them
• Roberts will finally force Soriano into a more sensible lineup spot
• Roberts will take over second base full-time, making DeRosa a true, valuable utility man, and strengthening the back of the bench
• Roberts will probably be worth 1.5-2 wins more than a platoon arrangement

CONS:

• Roberts is expensive, worth $14.3 million over the next two years, and on the wrong side of 30
• The Cubs have a glut of players who can play second base, and acquiring Roberts will mean losing many valuable trade chits as well as depth in case the Cubs want to upgrade anywhere else
• Cedeno is the Cubs’ only good defensive shortstop – everyone else is average at best, a long-term liability at worst, and he will HAVE to be included in the trade because the Oriole’s have absolutely nobody at that position currently
• While Veal, a high-upside, high-risk prospect, is exactly the kind that should get traded in these kinds of scenarios, the Marshalls provide stellar depth for the rotation as well as cheap, productive pitchers over the next few seasons. Losing them means the rotation fallbacks will be 38-year old Jon Lieber and, uh…

Overall, I believe the negatives of this deal outweigh the positives. The Cubs will be unable to field the ball at short if Cedeno leaves, and incapable of fielding quality replacement pitchers should any starter get hurt or Jason Marquis stink again – both highly likely. The value that Cedeno, who I believe may be ready to have his first good season, and Marshall could add to this team given adequate playing time might easily balance out the extra wins Roberts would be worth. If the Cubs could swing a deal that sent Veal, Hart, Gallagher, and (say) Eric Patterson, I would be all for it. But anything more would too damaging to the kind of depth a major league team needs to compete over a long season.

(Late update: The Cubs just signed inexplicably waved Blue Jays outfielder Reed Johnson. Johnson is a 31-year old marginal defensive centerfielder who bats from the right side and has hit portsiders at a .308/.371/.462 clip in his career. He makes an excellent platoon mate for Felix Pie in center, in that he should be able to play the position every now and then without killing the defense and spot in against tough lefties. He’s really perfect because he isn’t good enough to take too much playing time away from the young Pie. This makes Matt Murton, a solid corner outfielder who could start for a good team with worse outfielders than the Cubs have, highly tradable. If I were Jim Hendry, I’d be offering Murton, Veal, and Marshall or Gallagher for Brian Roberts right now.)

Question 3: First Samantha, then the Cubs? Will any Power be associated with a 2008 campaign from Illinois?

OK, enough with the bad political jokes, and onto the hardcore analysis. Over the last three years, the Cubs hit 194, 166, and 151 homeruns, a disturbing downward trend to say the least. Their high-priced offense was a mere eleventh in the league in this category last year – despite the fact that Wrigley Field may be the fifth easiest park to hit homers in. Much of the power outage was blamed on first baseman Derrek Lee, who slugged an anemic .479 in the first half with six homeruns but picked it up in the second half with a .554 slugging average and 16 homers. Lee got something of a mulligan last year – he was recovering from a hand injury that tends to sap power – but nobody expects him to return to the halcyon days of 2005, when he was the single best hitter in baseball. In fact, all of the projection systems foresee him hitting between 21 and 25 longballs. I would expect more than that – he’s 32, but is very athletic with the kind of body that ages well, and none of these systems know that he was recovering from an injury that specifically hampers power – but Lee is clearly no longer one of baseball’s offensive elite.

The other position likely to see a significant increase in power production is catcher. This isn’t necessarily because the Cubs have a great new catcher all lined up – although they do – but rather because last year the team’s catchers hit an otherworldly .239/.304/.369, or approximately five walks and a couple of doubles better than pitcher Carlos Zambrano’s batting rate statistics. The 2008 version of the Cubs, however, will enjoy employing Geovany Soto behind the plate. Soto hit like Alex Rodriguez in AAA last year, and when he was called up to the majors, clobbered about 20% of the total homers hit by Cubs catchers all season long in only 60 plate appearances. Granted, he won’t slug .667 this year, but the various projection systems peg him at somewhere between .464 and .483 for the upcoming campaign, with somewhere between 17-20 homers.

The Cubs may also see marginal gains at other positions – if Cedeno has a big year, he could pop a few at shortstop, and the Cubs are likely to get more than 23 homers from centerfield and rightfield combined this year from Pie and Fukudome, respectively. Last year, the lack of power killed the Cubs offense in the first half as the team didn’t get on base enough to generate runs any other way; next year I expect the Cubs will hit between 170 and 180 homers, once again placing them in the top half of the NL in homeruns.

Question 4: How To Serve Youth

The Cubs will likely be entrusting three of the four up-the-middle positions to youngish players still trying to establish themselves in the major leagues: Geovany Soto, 25, at catcher; Ronny Cedeno, 25, at shortstop; and Felix Pie, 23, at centerfield. Many teams would balk at entrusting so much responsibility to young players (see: Cubs, Chicago, 2003-2006, or Reds, Cincinnati, 2007 – or any other team Dusty Baker happens to be managing). For the Cubs, whose backup options look better than they really are, it is especially important that they allow this small but important youth movement to flourish.

Prospect mavens can probably worry least about Soto. He made a strong impression on the team last year, has little competition from any other catcher on the team or in the minors, and provides defensive chops good enough to keep him in the lineup even if he slumps at the plate. Strong-armed and oft-injured Henry Blanco backs him up, but is unlikely to usurp his role as starter: not only can Blanco not hit, but the elder player has actually gone out of his way to mentor the young padawan starting behind the plate for the Cubbies.

Pie’s situation is a little less stable. Although Piniella says he will start him at center, and the lefty’s spring has been golden, Pie has so far hit everywhere he’s been – except at the major league level. Another knock against Pie is his similarity to the last big Cubs centerfield prospect, Corey Patterson, whose mishandling by the team gives Bleacher Bums night sweats to this day. Luckily, there are also strong reasons to be hopeful for Pie’s season, not the least of which is the fact that he is a better prospect (and by all accounts a better student of the game) than Patterson was, and the organization is very keen on not repeating its past mistakes. The Cubs lineup is also solid and will afford him the opportunity to develop without much pressure at the bottom of the lineup. Lastly, other than Pie, only semi-prospect Sam Fuld can play a good center on this team, meaning Fukudome or newly acquired Reed Johnson probably won’t be expected to handle the position on a full-time basis.

Ronny Cedeno, the shortstop, is the least likely to stay in the starting lineup. For one thing, he really hasn’t hit at the major league level; unlike Pie, he has neither the benefit of being a highly regarded prospect nor age 23. In addition, the Cubs have that most beloved of baseball player, a gritty but marginally useful white guy with an entertaining name, ready to take over at shortstop should Cedeno fail again to produce at the plate. Unfortunately, Ryan Theriot isn’t really young, can’t really hit, and barely achieves adequacy in the field. Cedeno has the opportunity to out-hit, out-field, and outrun Theriot if he lives up his abilities (Baseball Prospectus thinks he can become Orlando Cabrera), but it is anyone’s guess as to whether he’ll be able to do it.

Question 5: Bullpen Utilization

Sweet Lou recently announced that Kerry Wood, the pitcher formerly known as Kid K, will be closer this season. Of course, I could now work myself into a lather about how closers are overvalued, the concept of closing is a highly flawed one, and why Tony La Russa will go to hell, but we only have so much space. Instead, let me try and examine what this means for the bullpen.

Nobody really knows if Wood can go back-to-back days – he barely has this spring, and even he never knows when his trick body will go “pop.” However, he has pitched lights-out thing spring, touching 98 on the gun and (far more importantly) not walking a single batter. If being used in a closer’s spot, i.e. entering the game in the bottom of the last inning, with nobody on base, and three outs to get - are what allows Kerry to focus best and pitch what he can without breaking down, then I’m actually all for him being used in the closer’s role. Closing is an idiotic concept, but its strange constraints and usage dictates may actually be perfect for Wood.

Even Lou can’t expect Wood to go out there time and again, so it is a good thing that the Cubs have three other potential shut-down relievers. Bob Howry is a beast out of the pen, spotting his fastball low-and-away from righties and blowing helpless batters away. Michael Wuertz and his hard slider may not do much against lefties (over his career, lefties hit him for about 70 more points of OPS) but the man is death on righthanders. The real prize of the ‘pen, however, is Carlos Marmol. Here’s Marmol’s line from last year:

Granted, nobody wants their pitchers to walk 35 batters in about 70 innings pitched. But. Marmol came out of nowhere and blew away 96 (!) hitters in that time, a downright Papelbonian rate. As a bonus, nobody could get a hit off of him, either. He’s a supremely valuable relief pitcher who has the talent to be one of the game’s elite (and, it should be said, the mechanics to become the next Tommy John surgery victim.)

Piniella managed the early-90s Cincinnati Reds to a World Series victory with their famed Nasty Boys trio of relief pitchers, none of which had a set closer’s role. This bullpen – rounded out by mediocre lefty Scott Eyre, pitching prospect Carmen Pignatiello, or Kevin Hart – won’t be as good as that one. But as long as Lou hasn’t lost his ability to ably manage a talented menagerie of relievers, and doesn’t overly rely on rigid roles, the bullpen should be a strength for the 2008 Cubs.

Random White Sox Thoughts

1. No matter what happens, Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen will be there to entertain us.

Here are a few choice quotes from these two, all from but one ESPN.com article:

We win the World Series and Kenny makes three key moves to winning, and the guy in Cleveland [Shapiro] wins the Baseball America Executive of the Year. That's a bunch of s---.

- Ozzie

Ninety-nine percent of the people weren't behind us. Hey man, this game is a bunch of front-runners. If you're good, they kiss your butt. If not, you're horse s---.

- Ozzie, on last year's team

We made a big mistake when we won in 2005. We never took credit. Me and Kenny, we just did our jobs and never went out of our way to rub it in people's faces that we were the champions. If we win it again, I'll be a cocky, arrogant, SOB. I'll be wearing my World Series rings hitting fungoes in the field.

- Ozzie

OK, I lied. Those are just Ozzie's quotes. It's not that I don't think Kenny Williams is entertaining in a perpetually aggrieved, peevish, chip-on-his-shoulder, semi-justified manner, but honestly, nothing he says will ever be as entertaining as his feisty manager's average bromide.

Even so, there's something to be said for a general manager of a major league team who is so willing to constantly and unwaveringly complain to the press about everything from his reputation, to Baseball Prospectus's White Sox predictions, to his own internal distress over his admitted errors. In fact, it may be that Williams' most entertaining feature is his monumental certainty of his place in the world: he admits it when he screws up, boasts about his successes, and boldly endorses his commonly crackpot schemes even in the face of almost universal criticism. I don't think there's another major professional team in the United States with one official so publicly anti-P.C., let alone two, and it is something I think it's about time we commended the Sox for.

2. This team is like Frankenstein's Monster in that it seems like it consists entirely of parts belonging to other, more sensibly constructed teams. Nick Swisher, who is one of their only OBP sources, signed his very sensible deal through 2012 when he was with the A's. Jim Thome, the other OBP source, signed his deal when he was supposed to be the long-term first baseman for the Phillies. Many other players - like Dye, Vazquez, Pierzynski, and Cabrera, - were drafted and graduated by other teams and are now at the tail end of the peak portion of their careers. Then there's the one good young player drafted by the Sox, Fields, who feels so out of place amongst this collection of oldish imports that he's almost like the body part Doc. Frankenstein couldn't locate in the cemetery and had to cut off a living person. I don't know if all this necessarily adds up to a meaningful point, but I just can't shake this comparison for some reason.

3. The White Sox are probably going to miss the playoffs this year. Then what? This team isn't built for the long haul - most of its best players are just going to get worse or become free agents. Its young players are, at best, league average. But it does have long-term guys like Fields and Swisher and Buehrle who can contribute down the line, making it difficult to envision a future in which the team becomes the worst in baseball and must engineer a complete retooling (see: Astros, Houston). Even the farm system, while heavily depleted, has a couple of guys along the lines of Aaron Poreda who could be quite good in a few years, unlike some other teams I could mention (see: Astros, Houston). The Sox are going to be in a very weird, uncomfortable place come Winter '09, with no clear path for how to proceed.

On Suffering

Although TTMD's first post suggests that the only thing the White Sox and the Cubs hold in common is the distance between their respective stadiums, the truth is that of course other similarities exist. Two baseball franchises with such storied histories, sharing a single city, will naturally engender comparisons and contrasts to each other. For example, although the Red Sox used to get the press, the truth is that until 2005 the White Sox were the American sports team suffering through the second-longest championship drought ever. The longest, naturally, belonged (and belongs) to the Cubs.

Which brings me, like all Chicago sports fans, Greek playwrights, and nihilists, to the subject of suffering. There is simply no way to begin a discussion (or blog) about these two teams without acknowledging this elephant in the room. With rare exceptions, like fans of soccer teams whose stadiums collapse, there is no equivalent for the misery and cruelty heaped upon Chicago baseball enthusiasts. In 2005 the White Sox went 11-1 in the postseason, taking the playoffs by storm and winning the World Series in a decisive sweep over the National League Champion Astros. The last time the White Sox reached the Fall Classic, my father attended one of the home games. The year was 1959, it was his very first major league game, he was about to turn ten, and the Sox lost. In 2003, the Cubs came within six outs of the World Series before a series of defensive miscues and the most infamous moment of fan interference in baseball history (or, at least, since the crowd stormed the field in the Merkle's Boner game) cost them the pennant. In 1998, they were swept in the first round of the playoffs. In 1989, they lost to the Giants in the playoffs, and in 1984, when the Cubs needed to win one of three games to take the pennant, they were defeated in part due to a famous defensive error. The last time they went to the playoffs before that? 1945. (They lost.)

Last year, the Cubs were swept in the first round of the playoffs by a team that was outscored over the course of the season. That kind of added ignominy is the sort of thing that Chicago sports fans almost take for granted at this point; how can we complain that the mediocre team lost in the playoffs last year when even our best teams are regularly trounced in the postseason? It may not be scientific, but one way to know that your favorite team has a winning problem is when its Wikipedia entry, as does the White Sox', includes the subsection, "1922-50: The Lean Years."

So why does it hurt me so much to read a story about one-time Cub wunderkid Mark Prior restarting his career in San Diego?

I think that, ultimately, the source of my pain is that rarest of attributes in the Second City: naivety. When Mark Prior, the greatest college pitcher since Roger Clemens, owner of supposedly perfect pitching mechanics, and man-eating scourge of batters everywhere dropped unexpectedly to the Cubs in the 2001 draft, the possibilities seemed endless. Prior was immediately dubbed, "The Franchise," and all the hopes and dreams of millions of Cubs fans were placed on his right arm. One of my favorite baseball writers, injury expert Will Carroll, even went to great lengths in his first book extolling Prior's outstanding mechanics. I attended his very first major league game ever, a 6-inning victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was the guy I was going to tell my kids about seeing, the prophet sent by the baseball gods to lead the Cubs to World Series glory with lightning bolt fastballs and earthquaking curves. He could even hit a little.

Instead, naturally, inevitably, the Cubs badly overworked his arm, he suffered through year after year of injuries, and left at the end of last season to resurrect his career in his home town of San Diego.

Rationally, of course, these things happen (see: Wood, Kerry), and Prior is no more likely to rejoin his Hall of Fame career trajectory than I am. But it still breaks my heart to think of Prior becoming even a league-average pitcher anywhere but Chicago. He was miraculously available with the second pick of the draft, he was destined to become savior, he was ours.

In case you are wondering who the first pick of the 2001 draft was, the guy the Minnesota Twins picked only because they did not believe they could afford to sign Prior - his name is Joe Mauer. If you are so inclined, you may visit him every summer at the All-Star game, where he will be starting at catcher for the American League.

Like I said, suffering.

The Ten Mile Divide

At 1060 W. Addison, in Chicago, Illinois, sits a landmark stadium. Wrigley Field, home of the Chicago Cubs since 1916 and professional baseball since 1914, is widely considered one of the greatest sports stadiums in the United States. Its legendary ivy-covered outfield wall and tomato-red marquee have witnessed the comings and goings of dozens of Cubs teams and generations of fans. Though the teams have often lacked talent, and the fans bragging rights, today the Cubs and Wrigley Field boast unprecedented levels of popularity and attention. The building at the corner of Clark and Addison is rightly considered a crown jewel of Chicago's North Side.

A mere ten miles due south, in the heart of the South Side's Bridgeport neighborhood, lies U.S. Cellular field. The home ballpark of the Chicago White Sox, opened in 1991 as the new Comiskey Park, has endured withering criticism over its looks, seating, and sterile atmosphere. Though the teams populating its environs hardly bettered the on-field records of their popular neighbor to the north, U.S. Cellular field has managed to improve its reputation through significant renovations, the adoration of its loyal, working class customers, and a recent renaissance following the team's World Series-winning 2005 season. These two teams have plied their trade in Chicago for over a hundred years each, yet their defining characteristics - lovable losers versus hardscrabble winners, big-money versus medium-money, Bleacher Bums versus chip on their shoulders - have diverged wildly and in unpredictable ways.

Somehow, just about the only thing these two franchises have in common is that between them lies a ten mile divide.